Foreign Affairs Predictions & Odds· 105 markets
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?
$9k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$9k Vol.$14k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
19%
April 30
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$8k Liq.
38
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$8k Liq.38Ends in 3 months
13%
Yes
Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?
$129k Vol.
$12k Liq.
21
Ends in about 4 hours
$129k Vol.$12k Liq.21Ends in about 4 hours
1%
Yes
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
$1.5m Vol.
$19k Liq.
78
Ends in 3 months
$1.5m Vol.$19k Liq.78Ends in 3 months
14%
June 30
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$29k Vol.
$14k Liq.
4
Ends in about 1 month
$29k Vol.$14k Liq.4Ends in about 1 month
33%
April 30
13%
Isfahan nuclear facility
45%
Yes
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
$413k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in about 4 hours
$413k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in about 4 hours
30%
June 30
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
$600k Vol.
$17k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$600k Vol.$17k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
11%
December 31, 2026
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
$153k Vol.
$12k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$153k Vol.$12k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
25%
Yes
Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?
$1.7m Vol.
$41k Liq.
34
Ends in 9 months
$1.7m Vol.$41k Liq.34Ends in 9 months
16%
December 31, 2026
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$100k Vol.
$11k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$11k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
$58k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$58k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in 9 months
22%
Yes
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
$717k Vol.
$85k Liq.
34
Ends in 9 months
$717k Vol.$85k Liq.34Ends in 9 months
34%
7
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
$1.1m Vol.
$56k Liq.
🔥$58k today
Ends in about 4 hours
$1.1m Vol.🔥$58k today$56k Liq.Ends in about 4 hours
76%
June 30
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
$369k Vol.
$137k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$369k Vol.$137k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
56%
Pakistan
Zelenskyy # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$3k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
$3k Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in 4 days
42%
60-79
Zelenskyy # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
$578 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$578 Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 8 days
49%
60-79
Zelenskyy # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?
$20k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in about 20 hours
$20k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in about 20 hours
74%
60-79