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Geopolitics Predictions & Odds· 1603 markets

AllPoliticsGazaStrikeIranInternational RelationsRussiaUkraineFinanceTrumpMiddle EastIsraelStrait Of HormuzPutinHezbollahOilNorth KoreaWorld AffairsCultureLebanonBorder IssuesInternational AidHumanitarian AidAid PackageNuclearGeopoliticsCommoditiesWorldKhameneiUkraine MapIndiciesNYMEX Crude Oil FuturesShipIran RegimeIran Offensive StrikesU.S. X IranIsrael X IranCBOE Volatility IndexHormozCloseTankerHormuz
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?

Politics·Israel

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?

$5.3m Vol.
$0 Liq.
11,927
Ended

No

North Korea missile test by July 15?

World·North Korea

North Korea missile test by July 15?

$76k Vol.
$0 Liq.
103
Ended

No

Next leader out of power in 2025?

World · Geopolitics

Next leader out of power in 2025?

$2.2m Vol.
$7k Liq.
17
Ended

None in 2025

Ukraine aid package in February?

Politics·Ukraine

Ukraine aid package in February?

$147k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

No

Border + Ukraine aid deal by Feb 9?

Politics·Ukraine

Border + Ukraine aid deal by Feb 9?

$75k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

No

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 10-16)

Geopolitics·Iran

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 10-16)

$0 Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

35-39

Will Russia enter Lyman by April 30?

Geopolitics·Ukraine Map

Will Russia enter Lyman by April 30?

$103k Vol.
$0 Liq.
6
Ends in about 1 month

Yes

Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?

Geopolitics·Russia

Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?

$0 Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

Yes

Will VIX close above 50 by June 30?

Geopolitics·Indicies

Will VIX close above 50 by June 30?

$0 Vol.
$0 Liq.
14
Ends in 3 months

No

Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 23?

Geopolitics·Russia

Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 23?

$15k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

No

Hezbollah military action against Israel by March 20?

Geopolitics·Hezbollah

Hezbollah military action against Israel by March 20?

$0 Vol.
$0 Liq.
39
Ended

Yes

Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 20?

Geopolitics·Russia

Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 20?

$0 Vol.
$0 Liq.
18
Ended

Yes

Israel Rocket Alerts by March 20?

Geopolitics·Israel

Israel Rocket Alerts by March 20?

$22k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

20k

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ Week of March 16?

Politics·NYMEX Crude Oil Futures

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ Week of March 16?

$102k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

↓ $95

Will Khamenei tweet on...?

Culture·Iran

Will Khamenei tweet on...?

$0 Vol.
$0 Liq.
72
Ended

March 17

Will Netanyahu tweet again by Saturday?

Culture·Israel

Will Netanyahu tweet again by Saturday?

$0 Vol.
$0 Liq.
10
Ended

No

Will Khamenei tweet every day through...?

Geopolitics·Iran

Will Khamenei tweet every day through...?

$39k Vol.
$0 Liq.
12
Ends in about 6 hours

March 20

Nuclear weapon detonation by...?

Geopolitics·Ukraine

Nuclear weapon detonation by...?

$0 Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ends in 9 months

June 30

North Korea missile test/launch by March 31?

Geopolitics·North Korea

North Korea missile test/launch by March 31?

$0 Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ends in about 6 hours

Yes

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ Week of March 9?

Geopolitics·Oil

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ Week of March 9?

$0 Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

↑ $95