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AllPoliticsIranWarRussiaUkraineBusinessFinanceTrumpMiddle EastNatoMilitaryZelenskyyPutinWorld AffairsReferendumInflationGlobal PoliticsEuGlobal ElectionsGermanyEuropean Union GeopoliticsEconomyFrenchEuropeECBMoldovaGerman PoliticsMacro SingleGerman ElectionCpiRecurringEconomic PolicyWorldMacro IndicatorsTrump ZelenskyySecurity GuaranteeUkraine Peace DealGlobal Rates
ECB rate cut in 2026?

Economy·Europe

ECB rate cut in 2026?

$21k Vol.
$5k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months

18%

Yes

ECB rate hike in 2026?

Economy·Economic Policy

ECB rate hike in 2026?

$82k Vol.
$9k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months

85%

Yes

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?

Politics·Russia

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?

$269k Vol.
$22k Liq.
16
Ended

4%

Yes

EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?

World·Trump

EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?

$82k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

14%

December 31

Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026

Economy·Macro Indicators

Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026

$3k Vol.
$36k Liq.
2
Ends in 10 months

40%

3.1%+

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

Geopolitics·Europe

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

$12k Vol.
$11k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months

14%

Yes

(Old) Romania Election

eu · Europe

(Old) Romania Election

$371.8m Vol.
$0 Liq.
10,491
Ended

Other (incl. Georgescu)

ECB Interest Rates: March 2025

Finance·ECB

ECB Interest Rates: March 2025

$952k Vol.
$0 Liq.
116
Ended

25 bps decrease

Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?

Geopolitics·Global Elections

Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?

$627k Vol.
$0 Liq.
67
Ended

No

EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by…?

Politics·Russia

EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by…?

$532k Vol.
$0 Liq.
79
Ended

December 19

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine before July?

Politics·Ukraine

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine before July?

$229k Vol.
$0 Liq.
9
Ended

No

Will Moldova's EU membership referendum pass?

Politics·Global Elections

Will Moldova's EU membership referendum pass?

$223k Vol.
$0 Liq.
97
Ended

Yes

More EU sanctions on Russia by...?

Politics·world affairs

More EU sanctions on Russia by...?

$210k Vol.
$0 Liq.
84
Ended

October 31

Macron out as president of France in 2024?

Geopolitics·french

Macron out as president of France in 2024?

$206k Vol.
$0 Liq.
17
Ended

No

EU sanctions on Iran by September 30?

World·Middle East

EU sanctions on Iran by September 30?

$114k Vol.
$0 Liq.
77
Ended

Yes

Irakli Kobakhidze out as Georgia PM in 2024?

Politics·eu

Irakli Kobakhidze out as Georgia PM in 2024?

$73k Vol.
$0 Liq.
35
Ended

No

Will EU increase sanctions on Russia before July?

World·world affairs

Will EU increase sanctions on Russia before July?

$63k Vol.
$0 Liq.
6
Ended

Yes

More EU sanctions on Russia by December 31?

Politics·Russia

More EU sanctions on Russia by December 31?

$45k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

Yes

More EU sanctions on Russia by August 31?

World·world affairs

More EU sanctions on Russia by August 31?

$33k Vol.
$0 Liq.
1
Ended

No

November Inflation Eurozone - Annual

Economy·cpi

November Inflation Eurozone - Annual

$26k Vol.
$0 Liq.
1
Ended

≤2.3%