Chatgpt Predictions & Odds· 114 markets

C
ChatGPT Outage by...?

ChatGPT Outage by...?

$29k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 15 days

66%

April 17

O
OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

$18k Vol.
$1k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months

41%

60%+

O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

$45k Vol.
$6k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months

19%

Yes

O
OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

$3k Vol.
$800 Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months

49%

Yes

C
ChatGPT out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?

ChatGPT out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?

$7k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 13 days

87%

April 15

C
ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10?

ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10?

$894 Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 8 days

6%

Yes

B
Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?

Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?

$19k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 13 days

85%

April 15

G
GPT-6 released by…?

GPT-6 released by…?

$216k Vol.
$22k Liq.
40
Ended

83%

December 31, 2026

#
#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 3?

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 3?

$14k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in about 14 hours

99%

ChatGPT

#
#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 3?

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 3?

$10k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in about 14 hours

97%

Claude by Anthropic

W
Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

$2k Vol.
$5k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months

10%

Yes

C
Chatbot Arena: How high will AI score by December 31?

Chatbot Arena: How high will AI score by December 31?

$67k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

48%

↑ 1550

W
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

$71k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

10%

Yes

W
Which company has the #2 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)

Which company has the #2 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)

$15k Vol.
$62k Liq.
Ends in 28 days

85%

Anthropic

W
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)

Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)

$853k Vol.
$153k Liq.
Ends in 28 days

90%

Anthropic

W
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?

Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?

$5k Vol.
$6k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months

26%

Yes

W
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

$1.4m Vol.
$61k Liq.
24
Ends in 3 months

28%

OpenAI

W
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

$926k Vol.
$174k Liq.
24
Ends in 3 months

51%

Anthropic

W
Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)

Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)

$9k Vol.
$31k Liq.
Ends in 28 days

50%

Google

W
Which company has second best AI model end of June?

Which company has second best AI model end of June?

$335k Vol.
$107k Liq.
53
Ends in 3 months

51%

Anthropic