Crimea Predictions & Odds· 105 markets
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
$14k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$14k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in 9 months
22%
Yes
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
$1.7m Vol.
$160k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$1.7m Vol.$160k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
78%
No meeting before 2027
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
$52k Vol.
$25k Liq.
13
Ends in 3 months
$52k Vol.$25k Liq.13Ends in 3 months
4%
Yes
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
$26k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$26k Vol.$24k Liq.Ends in 9 months
25%
Yes
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
$51k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$51k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in 9 months
13%
Yes
12%
April 30
88%
April 30
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
$530k Vol.
$50k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$530k Vol.$50k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
5%
Yes
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$100k Vol.
$18k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$18k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by April 30?
$86k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 30 days
$86k Vol.$9k Liq.Ends in 30 days
20%
Yes
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...?
$121k Vol.
$44k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$121k Vol.$44k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
72%
December 31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$230k Liq.
1
Ends in 30 days
$1.1m Vol.$230k Liq.1Ends in 30 days
3%
Yes
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by...?
$79k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 15 days
$79k Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in 15 days
51%
April 15
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
$52k Vol.
$33k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months
$52k Vol.$33k Liq.8Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?
$15k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ended
$15k Vol.$6k Liq.Ended
4%
Yes
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by...?
$53k Vol.
$13k Liq.
1
Ends in 30 days
$53k Vol.$13k Liq.1Ends in 30 days
12%
April 30