Foreign Policy Predictions & Odds· 142 markets
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
$1.6m Vol.
$30k Liq.
155
Ends in 3 months
$1.6m Vol.$30k Liq.155Ends in 3 months
24%
June 30, 2026
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
$874k Vol.
$77k Liq.
1
Ends in about 6 hours
$874k Vol.$77k Liq.1Ends in about 6 hours
29%
December 31
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$13k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$13k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
13%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
$29.5m Vol.
$389k Liq.
🔥$557k today
20,364
Ends in about 6 hours
$29.5m Vol.🔥$557k today$389k Liq.20,364Ends in about 6 hours
0%
Yes
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
$14.7m Vol.
$536k Liq.
🔥$359k today
72
Ends in 9 months
$14.7m Vol.🔥$359k today$536k Liq.72Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
$10.6m Vol.
$3.9m Liq.
🔥$91k today
Ends in about 6 hours
$10.6m Vol.🔥$91k today$3.9m Liq.Ends in about 6 hours
0%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
$12.4m Vol.
$468k Liq.
🔥$78k today
5,425
Ends in 9 months
$12.4m Vol.🔥$78k today$468k Liq.5,425Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$224k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$1.1m Vol.$224k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
$366k Vol.
$210k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$366k Vol.$210k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
59%
Pakistan
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
$31.0m Vol.
$288k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$31.0m Vol.$288k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
9%
Yes
Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?
$3.4m Vol.
$153k Liq.
130
Ends in about 6 hours
$3.4m Vol.$153k Liq.130Ends in about 6 hours
2%
India
Will Trump meet with Putin again by...?
$6.8m Vol.
$35k Liq.
251
Ends in about 6 hours
$6.8m Vol.$35k Liq.251Ends in about 6 hours
0%
Yes
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?
$202k Vol.
$46k Liq.
6
Ends in about 1 month
$202k Vol.$46k Liq.6Ends in about 1 month
10%
April 10
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
$1.5m Vol.
$119k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$1.5m Vol.$119k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$3.7m Vol.
$365k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$3.7m Vol.$365k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
10%
June 30, 2026
US strike on Mexico by...?
$3.2m Vol.
$60k Liq.
161
Ends in 9 months
$3.2m Vol.$60k Liq.161Ends in 9 months
25%
December 31
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
$191k Vol.
$117k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$191k Vol.$117k Liq.Ends in 9 months
92%
China
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
$447k Vol.
$31k Liq.
28
Ends in 9 months
$447k Vol.$31k Liq.28Ends in 9 months
49%
Yes
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
$153k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$153k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in 9 months
9%
Yes