Nuclear Deal Predictions & Odds· 110 markets
W
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
$505k Vol.
$173k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$505k Vol.$173k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
45%
No Meeting by June 30
U
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
$966k Vol.
$39k Liq.
61
Ends in 3 months
$966k Vol.$39k Liq.61Ends in 3 months
24%
Yes
U
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
$473k Vol.
$54k Liq.
72
Ends in 9 months
$473k Vol.$54k Liq.72Ends in 9 months
39%
Yes
U
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
$266k Vol.
$94k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$266k Vol.$94k Liq.Ends in 27 days
3%
Yes
U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$17k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$17k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
$84k Vol.
$124k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$84k Vol.$124k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
27%
December 31
I
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
$205k Vol.
$70k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$205k Vol.$70k Liq.Ends in 27 days
5%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
$166k Vol.
$25k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$166k Vol.$25k Liq.Ends in 3 months
15%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
$1k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$1k Vol.$18k Liq.Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
W
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
$5k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$5k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
U
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
$22k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$22k Vol.$2k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
W
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$104k Vol.
$53k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$104k Vol.$53k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
53%
US x Iran Ceasefire
U
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$133k Vol.
$28k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$133k Vol.$28k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
W
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
$534k Vol.
$64k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$534k Vol.$64k Liq.Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
U
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
$187k Vol.
$45k Liq.
🔥$79k today
6
Ends in about 2 months
$187k Vol.🔥$79k today$45k Liq.6Ends in about 2 months
19%
Yes
E
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$102k Vol.
$12k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$102k Vol.$12k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
8%
Yes
R
12%
December 31, 2026
N
41%
Yes
W
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
$91k Vol.
$13k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$91k Vol.$13k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
27%
Yes