Nuclear Deal Predictions & Odds· 109 markets
W
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
$492k Vol.
$180k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$492k Vol.$180k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
43%
No Meeting by June 30
U
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
$964k Vol.
$22k Liq.
54
Ends in 3 months
$964k Vol.$22k Liq.54Ends in 3 months
27%
Yes
U
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
$472k Vol.
$55k Liq.
65
Ends in 9 months
$472k Vol.$55k Liq.65Ends in 9 months
39%
Yes
U
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
$237k Vol.
$88k Liq.
🔥$58k today
Ends in 27 days
$237k Vol.🔥$58k today$88k Liq.Ends in 27 days
5%
Yes
U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$18k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$18k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
$74k Vol.
$84k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$74k Vol.$84k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
30%
December 31
I
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
$199k Vol.
$99k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$199k Vol.$99k Liq.Ends in 27 days
6%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
$164k Vol.
$38k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$164k Vol.$38k Liq.Ends in 3 months
16%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
$1k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$1k Vol.$18k Liq.Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
W
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
$5k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$5k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 9 months
22%
Yes
U
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
$22k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$22k Vol.$2k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
W
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$44k Vol.
$113k Liq.
13
Ends in 27 days
$44k Vol.$113k Liq.13Ends in 27 days
18%
April 30
W
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$103k Vol.
$58k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$103k Vol.$58k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
54%
US x Iran Ceasefire
U
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$132k Vol.
$32k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$132k Vol.$32k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
W
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
$533k Vol.
$54k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$533k Vol.$54k Liq.Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
U
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
$141k Vol.
$61k Liq.
🔥$111k today
3
Ends in about 2 months
$141k Vol.🔥$111k today$61k Liq.3Ends in about 2 months
17%
Yes
E
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$102k Vol.
$23k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$102k Vol.$23k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
8%
Yes
R
12%
December 31, 2026
N
41%
Yes