Nuclear Weapons Predictions & Odds· 106 markets
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$8k Liq.
38
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$8k Liq.38Ends in 3 months
13%
Yes
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
$4k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$4k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 9 months
18%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
$2.2m Vol.
$48k Liq.
Ends in about 4 hours
$2.2m Vol.$48k Liq.Ends in about 4 hours
1%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
$155k Vol.
$47k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$155k Vol.$47k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
14%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
$148k Vol.
$30k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$148k Vol.$30k Liq.Ends in 3 months
28%
Yes
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
$46k Vol.
$39k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$46k Vol.$39k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
32%
December 31
Russia nuclear test by...?
$1.3m Vol.
$7k Liq.
8
Ends in about 4 hours
$1.3m Vol.$7k Liq.8Ends in about 4 hours
0%
Yes
U.S. nuclear test by...?
$592k Vol.
$12k Liq.
16
Ends in about 4 hours
$592k Vol.$12k Liq.16Ends in about 4 hours
0%
Yes
12%
Yes
14%
Isfahan nuclear facility
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$128k Vol.
$17k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$128k Vol.$17k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
13%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
$1.5m Vol.
$47k Liq.
Ends in about 4 hours
$1.5m Vol.$47k Liq.Ends in about 4 hours
1%
Yes
45%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
$908k Vol.
$18k Liq.
25
Ends in 3 months
$908k Vol.$18k Liq.25Ends in 3 months
30%
Yes
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
$89k Vol.
$14k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$89k Vol.$14k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
29%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
$447k Vol.
$29k Liq.
28
Ends in 9 months
$447k Vol.$29k Liq.28Ends in 9 months
48%
Yes
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
$22k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$22k Vol.$2k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
25%
Yes
What will Bitcoin outperform in March?
$99k Vol.
$33k Liq.
Ends in about 4 hours
$99k Vol.$33k Liq.Ends in about 4 hours
99%
Gold
Ukraine hits Moscow by...?
$139k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in about 4 hours
$139k Vol.$14k Liq.Ends in about 4 hours
12%
April 30