Nuclear Weapons Predictions & Odds· 106 markets
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$11k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$11k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
$4k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$4k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in 9 months
18%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
$2.2m Vol.
$50k Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$2.2m Vol.$50k Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
0%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
$151k Vol.
$47k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$151k Vol.$47k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
14%
Yes
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
$42k Vol.
$39k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$42k Vol.$39k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
32%
December 31
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
$141k Vol.
$42k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$141k Vol.$42k Liq.Ends in 3 months
27%
Yes
Russia nuclear test by...?
$1.3m Vol.
$57k Liq.
7
Ends in about 11 hours
$1.3m Vol.$57k Liq.7Ends in about 11 hours
0%
Yes
U.S. nuclear test by...?
$591k Vol.
$12k Liq.
15
Ends in about 11 hours
$591k Vol.$12k Liq.15Ends in about 11 hours
0%
Yes
12%
Yes
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$28k Vol.
$16k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$28k Vol.$16k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
41%
April 30
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$128k Vol.
$21k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$128k Vol.$21k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
13%
Yes
17%
Isfahan nuclear facility
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
$906k Vol.
$21k Liq.
24
Ends in 3 months
$906k Vol.$21k Liq.24Ends in 3 months
34%
Yes
46%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
$446k Vol.
$29k Liq.
28
Ends in 9 months
$446k Vol.$29k Liq.28Ends in 9 months
51%
Yes
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
$88k Vol.
$12k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$88k Vol.$12k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
33%
Yes
Ukraine hits Moscow by...?
$139k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$139k Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
12%
April 30
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by...?
$597k Vol.
$15k Liq.
131
Ends in about 11 hours
$597k Vol.$15k Liq.131Ends in about 11 hours
3%
Yes
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?
$15k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ended
$15k Vol.$5k Liq.Ended
4%
Yes