Nuclear Weapons Predictions & Odds· 123 markets
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$9k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$9k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
13%
Yes
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
$4k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$4k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in 9 months
18%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
$2.2m Vol.
$49k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$2.2m Vol.$49k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
1%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
$155k Vol.
$48k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$155k Vol.$48k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
14%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
$148k Vol.
$31k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$148k Vol.$31k Liq.Ends in 3 months
28%
Yes
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
$46k Vol.
$42k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$46k Vol.$42k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
32%
December 31
Russia nuclear test by...?
$1.3m Vol.
$7k Liq.
8
Ends in about 5 hours
$1.3m Vol.$7k Liq.8Ends in about 5 hours
0%
Yes
U.S. nuclear test by...?
$592k Vol.
$12k Liq.
16
Ends in about 5 hours
$592k Vol.$12k Liq.16Ends in about 5 hours
0%
Yes
12%
Yes
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$29k Vol.
$12k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$29k Vol.$12k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
42%
April 30
16%
Isfahan nuclear facility
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$128k Vol.
$18k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$128k Vol.$18k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
13%
Yes
45%
Yes
