Security Predictions & Odds· 878 markets
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$100k Vol.
$11k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$11k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$14k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$14k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
16%
Yes
16%
June 30
When will the DHS shutdown end?
$528k Vol.
$148k Liq.
1
Ends in 30 days
$528k Vol.$148k Liq.1Ends in 30 days
32%
After April 30
Who will vote "Yea" on the DHS Appropriations Act, 2026 by March 31?
$82k Vol.
$53k Liq.
1
Ended
$82k Vol.$53k Liq.1Ended
5%
Jacky Rosen
1%
Yes
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
$14.7m Vol.
$536k Liq.
🔥$359k today
72
Ends in 9 months
$14.7m Vol.🔥$359k today$536k Liq.72Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
$1.9m Vol.
$103k Liq.
🔥$73k today
1
Ends in 3 months
$1.9m Vol.🔥$73k today$103k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
4%
Yes
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
$4.0m Vol.
$167k Liq.
🔥$60k today
171
Ends in over 1 year
$4.0m Vol.🔥$60k today$167k Liq.171Ends in over 1 year
63%
Other
0%
Yes
Iran leader end of 2026?
$5.6m Vol.
$865k Liq.
71
Ends in 9 months
$5.6m Vol.$865k Liq.71Ends in 9 months
51%
Mojtaba Khamenei
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
$845k Vol.
$88k Liq.
30
Ends in 9 months
$845k Vol.$88k Liq.30Ends in 9 months
15%
Yes
0%
Yes
Number of TSA Passengers April 1?
$6k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in about 22 hours
$6k Vol.$11k Liq.Ends in about 22 hours
82%
<2.4M
88%
Olivia