Aid Package Predictions & Odds· 102 markets
20%
June 30
45%
Yes
17%
Isfahan nuclear facility
US announces military support of Iran opposition by...?
$233k Vol.
$19k Liq.
10
Ends in about 1 month
$233k Vol.$19k Liq.10Ends in about 1 month
8%
April 30
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$29k Vol.
$16k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$29k Vol.$16k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
41%
April 30
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in 3 months
16%
Yes
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$100k Vol.
$15k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$15k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes
Zelenskyy # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$3k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
$3k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 4 days
40%
60-79
Zelenskyy # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?
$19k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in about 23 hours
$19k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in about 23 hours
90%
60-79
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
$3k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$3k Vol.$13k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
89%
TSA
US announces military support of Kurds by...?
$482k Vol.
$10k Liq.
40
Ends in about 1 month
$482k Vol.$10k Liq.40Ends in about 1 month
19%
April 30
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
$14.0m Vol.
$442k Liq.
256
Ends in 3 months
$14.0m Vol.$442k Liq.256Ends in 3 months
44%
>$600M
Zelenskyy # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
$578 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$578 Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 8 days
46%
60-79
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
$328k Vol.
$20k Liq.
36
Ends in 3 months
$328k Vol.$20k Liq.36Ends in 3 months
50%
Yes
How late will Leavitt be to the next press briefing?
$1k Vol.
$6k Liq.
1
Ends in about 7 hours
$1k Vol.$6k Liq.1Ends in about 7 hours
42%
<15 minutes
Pakistan military action against Kabul by...?
$20k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 15 days
$20k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 15 days
49%
April 15
Middle East · Iran Regime
Internet Access restored in Iran by...?
$101k Vol.
$14k Liq.
27
Ends in about 1 month
$101k Vol.$14k Liq.27Ends in about 1 month
19%
April 30
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?
$15k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ended
$15k Vol.$6k Liq.Ended
4%
Yes
11%
December 31, 2026