Artificial General Intelligence Predictions & Odds· 101 markets
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$45k Vol.
$8k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$45k Vol.$8k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
22%
Yes
21%
December 31, 2026
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
$73k Vol.
$8k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$73k Vol.$8k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
42%
Yes
OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
$3k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$3k Vol.$1k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
37%
Yes
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
$70k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$70k Vol.$24k Liq.Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
8%
Yes
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
$27k Vol.
$1k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$27k Vol.$1k Liq.4Ends in 9 months
29%
Yes
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$100k Vol.
$6k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$6k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
28%
Yes
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?
$13k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$13k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
2%
Yes
Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?
$0 Vol.
$5k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$0 Vol.$5k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes
82%
December 31, 2026
61%
Yes
Claude Mythos released by…?
$42k Vol.
$20k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
$42k Vol.$20k Liq.1Ends in about 1 month
70%
June 30
Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?
$1k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 15 days
$1k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in 15 days
81%
April 15
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
$1.4m Vol.
$76k Liq.
24
Ends in 3 months
$1.4m Vol.$76k Liq.24Ends in 3 months
28%
OpenAI
Which company will have the best AI model for math on March 31?
$489k Vol.
$61k Liq.
3
Ends in about 7 hours
$489k Vol.$61k Liq.3Ends in about 7 hours
100%
OpenAI
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
$2.7m Vol.
$466k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$2.7m Vol.$466k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
90%
Anthropic
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$45k Vol.
$13k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$45k Vol.$13k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
17%
Yes