Department Of War Predictions & Odds· 147 markets

W
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?

Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?

$2.3m Vol.
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203
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Yes

W
What will Trump say this week (September 29 - October 5)?

Transgender

W
What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (March 27)

Dario / Amodei

W
What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (March 6)

AI 5+ times

W
What will Trump say during the Champion of Coal event?

What will Trump say during the Champion of Coal event?

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18
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Coal 15+ times

W
What will Trump say during Malaysia events on October 26?

What will Trump say during Malaysia events on October 26?

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68
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Malaysia / Thailand / Cambodia 15+ times

W
What will Trump say during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?

Israel / Israeli 20+ times

T
Trump renames Department of Defense by September 30?

Trump renames Department of Defense by September 30?

$236k Vol.
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271
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Yes

W
Who will vote "Yea" on the DHS Appropriations Act, 2026 by March 31?

Chris Coons

M
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025?

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025?

$125k Vol.
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No

5
5kt meteor strike in 2025?

5kt meteor strike in 2025?

$376k Vol.
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No

U
U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?

U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?

$341k Vol.
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135
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No

U
US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by...?

US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by...?

$67k Vol.
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5
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February 28

1
10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?

10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?

$4k Vol.
$0 Liq.
16
Ended

No

1
10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?

10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?

$18k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

No

1
10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?

10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?

$2k Vol.
$0 Liq.
16
Ended

No

1
10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?

10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?

$10k Vol.
$0 Liq.
25
Ended

No

1
10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?

10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?

$4k Vol.
$0 Liq.
25
Ended

Yes

1
10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?

10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?

$8k Vol.
$0 Liq.
26
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No