Anthropic Predictions & Odds· 264 markets

Will OpenAI Merge with Anthropic in 2023?

OpenAI · anthropic

Will OpenAI Merge with Anthropic in 2023?

$12k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

No

Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?

Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?

$2.3m Vol.
$0 Liq.
203
Ends in about 13 hours

Yes

Which company's AI will first hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30?

Which company's AI will first hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30?

$611k Vol.
$0 Liq.
17
Ends in 3 months

Anthropic

Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic by December 31?

Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic by December 31?

$28k Vol.
$0 Liq.
2
Ended

No

Will Claude go down on __ days in March?

Will Claude go down on __ days in March?

$23k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours

11+

Will any AI reach $50k in Alpha Arena AI trading competition?

Will any AI reach $50k in Alpha Arena AI trading competition?

$37k Vol.
$0 Liq.
7
Ended

No

Alpha Arena AI trading competition biggest loser?

Alpha Arena AI trading competition biggest loser?

$239k Vol.
$0 Liq.
8
Ended

OpenAI

Alpha Arena AI trading competition winner?

Alpha Arena AI trading competition winner?

$1.0m Vol.
$0 Liq.
87
Ended

Alibaba

Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?

Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?

$537k Vol.
$0 Liq.
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No

OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025?

OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025?

$176k Vol.
$0 Liq.
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No

Anthropic acquired in 2025?

Anthropic acquired in 2025?

$49k Vol.
$0 Liq.
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No

Will Mira Murati join Anthropic?

AI · OpenAI

Will Mira Murati join Anthropic?

$42k Vol.
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No

Claude 5 released on...?

Claude 5 released on...?

$663k Vol.
$0 Liq.
5
Ended

No release by February 28

Grok 4.20 released by...?

Grok 4.20 released by...?

$844k Vol.
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192

April 20

Claude 4 released in May?

Claude 4 released in May?

$46k Vol.
$0 Liq.
5
Ended

Yes

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 27?

ChatGPT

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 27?

Claude by Anthropic

What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (March 27)

Dario / Amodei

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?

Claude by Anthropic