Department Of War Predictions & Odds· 146 markets

Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?

Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?

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Yes

What will Trump say this week (September 29 - October 5)?

Transgender

What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (March 27)

Dario / Amodei

What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (March 6)

AI 5+ times

What will Trump say during the Champion of Coal event?

What will Trump say during the Champion of Coal event?

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Coal 15+ times

What will Trump say during Malaysia events on October 26?

What will Trump say during Malaysia events on October 26?

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Malaysia / Thailand / Cambodia 15+ times

What will Trump say during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?

Israel / Israeli 20+ times

Trump renames Department of Defense by September 30?

Trump renames Department of Defense by September 30?

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Yes

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025?

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025?

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No

5kt meteor strike in 2025?

5kt meteor strike in 2025?

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No

U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?

U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?

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135
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No

US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by...?

US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by...?

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5
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February 28

10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?

10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?

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16
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No

10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?

10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?

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No

10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?

10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?

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16
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No

10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?

10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?

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25
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No

10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?

10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?

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25
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Yes

10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?

10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?

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26
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No

10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?

10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?

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No