Department Of War Predictions & Odds· 108 markets
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$45k Vol.
$11k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$45k Vol.$11k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
17%
Yes
Who will vote "Yea" on the DHS Appropriations Act, 2026 by March 31?
$80k Vol.
$55k Liq.
1
Ends in about 8 hours
$80k Vol.$55k Liq.1Ends in about 8 hours
9%
Jacky Rosen
38%
Yes
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$139k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$139k Vol.$11k Liq.Ends in 9 months
18%
Yes
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$102k Vol.
$12k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$102k Vol.$12k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
5%
Yes
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
$1.5m Vol.
$17k Liq.
78
Ends in 3 months
$1.5m Vol.$17k Liq.78Ends in 3 months
14%
June 30
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$9k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$9k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
$4.9m Vol.
$1.3m Liq.
🔥$154k today
Ends in 9 months
$4.9m Vol.🔥$154k today$1.3m Liq.Ends in 9 months
10%
December 31
Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?
$556k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in about 8 hours
$556k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in about 8 hours
23%
April 30
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?
$1.2m Vol.
$40k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$1.2m Vol.$40k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
2%
Yes
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?
$15k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ended
$15k Vol.$6k Liq.Ended
4%
Yes
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?
$21k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in about 8 hours
$21k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in about 8 hours
28%
Yes
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?
$282k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in about 8 hours
$282k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in about 8 hours
0%
Yes
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
$6k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$6k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in 3 months
26%
Yes
Ukraine hits Moscow by...?
$139k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in about 8 hours
$139k Vol.$15k Liq.Ends in about 8 hours
12%
April 30
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?
$50k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$50k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
8%
Yes
Gulf State military action against Iran by...?
$6k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$6k Vol.$14k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
27%
April 30
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$8.6m Vol.
$495k Liq.
🔥$273k today
329
Ends in about 8 hours
$8.6m Vol.🔥$273k today$495k Liq.329Ends in about 8 hours
78%
December 31
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$35k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$35k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
50%
US x Iran Ceasefire