Department Of War Predictions & Odds· 156 markets
W
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$47k Vol.
$22k Liq.
3
Ends in 27 days
$47k Vol.$22k Liq.3Ends in 27 days
14%
Yes
5
42%
Yes
M
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$140k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$140k Vol.$14k Liq.Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
1
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$102k Vol.
$12k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$102k Vol.$12k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
4%
Yes
1
7%
Yes
U
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
$1.5m Vol.
$15k Liq.
79
Ends in 3 months
$1.5m Vol.$15k Liq.79Ends in 3 months
8%
Yes
U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$17k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$17k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
W
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
$5.2m Vol.
$236k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$5.2m Vol.$236k Liq.Ends in 9 months
8%
December 31
W
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$51k Vol.
$8k Liq.
14
Ends in 27 days
$51k Vol.$8k Liq.14Ends in 27 days
17%
Yes
W
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?
$1.2m Vol.
$38k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$1.2m Vol.$38k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
1%
Yes
R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3?
$10k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ended
$10k Vol.$2k Liq.Ended
28%
Yes
R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10?
$95 Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
$95 Vol.$13k Liq.Ends in 7 days
59%
Yes
R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?
$32k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ended
$32k Vol.$5k Liq.Ended
2%
Yes
P
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
$23k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$23k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in 9 months
31%
Yes
P
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
$11k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$11k Vol.$13k Liq.Ends in 3 months
16%
Yes
U
9%
April 30
W
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$104k Vol.
$54k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$104k Vol.$54k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
53%
US x Iran Ceasefire
G
Gulf State military action against Iran by...?
$95k Vol.
$41k Liq.
5
Ends in 27 days
$95k Vol.$41k Liq.5Ends in 27 days
22%
April 30
I
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$12.4m Vol.
$969k Liq.
🔥$696k today
379
Ended
$12.4m Vol.🔥$696k today$969k Liq.379Ended
85%
December 31