Fed Predictions & Odds· 1939 markets
Fed decision in April?
$38.0m Vol.
$3.2m Liq.
🔥$1.6m today
18
Ends in 30 days
$38.0m Vol.🔥$1.6m today$3.2m Liq.18Ends in 30 days
97%
No change
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$14.6m Vol.
$1.3m Liq.
🔥$267k today
58
Ends in 9 months
$14.6m Vol.🔥$267k today$1.3m Liq.58Ends in 9 months
38%
0 (0 bps)
Fed Decision in June?
$4.6m Vol.
$858k Liq.
🔥$241k today
11
Ends in 3 months
$4.6m Vol.🔥$241k today$858k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
87%
No change
Fed Decision in July?
$2.4m Vol.
$258k Liq.
🔥$235k today
Ends in 4 months
$2.4m Vol.🔥$235k today$258k Liq.Ends in 4 months
78%
No change
25%
Yes
82%
Pause–Pause–Pause
97%
Pause–Pause–Pause
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?
$10k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 30 days
$10k Vol.$22k Liq.Ends in 30 days
44%
2
73%
Pause–Pause–Pause
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds above ___ by March 31?
$0 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 14 hours
$0 Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in about 14 hours
53%
>5%
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$5.9m Vol.
$354k Liq.
🔥$464k today
7
Ends in 8 months
$5.9m Vol.🔥$464k today$354k Liq.7Ends in 8 months
34%
3.75%
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$15.6m Vol.
$1.9m Liq.
🔥$426k today
72
Ends in 7 months
$15.6m Vol.🔥$426k today$1.9m Liq.72Ends in 7 months
96%
Kevin Warsh
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$1.3m Vol.
$304k Liq.
🔥$371k today
17
Ends in 9 months
$1.3m Vol.🔥$371k today$304k Liq.17Ends in 9 months
63%
↓ 3.25%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?
$434k Vol.
$20k Liq.
11
Ends in about 2 months
$434k Vol.$20k Liq.11Ends in about 2 months
55%
May 15
63%
December Meeting
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.8m Vol.
$167k Liq.
36
Ends in about 1 month
$1.8m Vol.$167k Liq.36Ends in about 1 month
2%
May 14
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
$70k Vol.
$20k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$70k Vol.$20k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
18%
Yes
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$96k Vol.
$47k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$96k Vol.$47k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
47%
US x Iran Ceasefire
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
$117k Vol.
$20k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months
$117k Vol.$20k Liq.8Ends in 9 months
71%
December 31
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?
$65k Vol.
$31k Liq.
1
Ends in about 2 months
$65k Vol.$31k Liq.1Ends in about 2 months
3%
Yes