Federal Reserve Predictions & Odds· 373 markets
Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?
$72k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$72k Vol.$21k Liq.Ends in 3 months
94%
Thom Tillis
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds above ___ by March 31?
$0 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$0 Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
53%
>5%
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
$24k Vol.
$18k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$24k Vol.$18k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
24%
Yes
US national Ethereum reserve before 2027?
$0 Vol.
$5k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$0 Vol.$5k Liq.4Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$5.9m Vol.
$276k Liq.
🔥$285k today
8
Ends in 8 months
$5.9m Vol.🔥$285k today$276k Liq.8Ends in 8 months
29%
3.75%
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?
$65k Vol.
$30k Liq.
1
Ends in about 2 months
$65k Vol.$30k Liq.1Ends in about 2 months
3%
Yes
Fed decision in April?
$38.9m Vol.
$3.2m Liq.
🔥$2.1m today
18
Ends in 29 days
$38.9m Vol.🔥$2.1m today$3.2m Liq.18Ends in 29 days
97%
No change
Fed Decision in July?
$2.6m Vol.
$242k Liq.
🔥$408k today
Ends in 4 months
$2.6m Vol.🔥$408k today$242k Liq.Ends in 4 months
78%
No change
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$15.7m Vol.
$1.7m Liq.
🔥$310k today
72
Ends in 7 months
$15.7m Vol.🔥$310k today$1.7m Liq.72Ends in 7 months
95%
Kevin Warsh
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$14.7m Vol.
$1.1m Liq.
🔥$275k today
58
Ends in 9 months
$14.7m Vol.🔥$275k today$1.1m Liq.58Ends in 9 months
35%
0 (0 bps)
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$1.3m Vol.
$205k Liq.
🔥$246k today
18
Ends in 9 months
$1.3m Vol.🔥$246k today$205k Liq.18Ends in 9 months
67%
↓ 3.25%
Fed Decision in June?
$4.6m Vol.
$755k Liq.
🔥$230k today
11
Ends in 3 months
$4.6m Vol.🔥$230k today$755k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
88%
No change
21%
Yes
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?
$435k Vol.
$23k Liq.
11
Ends in about 2 months
$435k Vol.$23k Liq.11Ends in about 2 months
52%
May 15
64%
December Meeting
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
$74k Vol.
$20k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$74k Vol.$20k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
$1.6m Vol.
$220k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months
$1.6m Vol.$220k Liq.10Ends in 9 months
90%
SpaceX
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.8m Vol.
$135k Liq.
36
Ends in about 1 month
$1.8m Vol.$135k Liq.36Ends in about 1 month
2%
May 14
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$34k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$34k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
50%
US x Iran Ceasefire
77%
Up