Federal Reserve Predictions & Odds· 165 markets
Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?
$72k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$72k Vol.$21k Liq.Ends in 3 months
94%
Thom Tillis
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds above ___ by March 31?
$0 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
$0 Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
53%
>5%
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
$24k Vol.
$18k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$24k Vol.$18k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
23%
Yes
US national Ethereum reserve before 2027?
$0 Vol.
$5k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$0 Vol.$5k Liq.4Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$5.9m Vol.
$352k Liq.
🔥$418k today
8
Ends in 8 months
$5.9m Vol.🔥$418k today$352k Liq.8Ends in 8 months
34%
3.75%
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?
$65k Vol.
$31k Liq.
1
Ends in about 2 months
$65k Vol.$31k Liq.1Ends in about 2 months
3%
Yes
Fed decision in April?
$38.4m Vol.
$3.0m Liq.
🔥$1.9m today
18
Ends in 30 days
$38.4m Vol.🔥$1.9m today$3.0m Liq.18Ends in 30 days
97%
No change
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$15.6m Vol.
$1.9m Liq.
🔥$392k today
73
Ends in 7 months
$15.6m Vol.🔥$392k today$1.9m Liq.73Ends in 7 months
96%
Kevin Warsh
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$1.3m Vol.
$291k Liq.
🔥$329k today
18
Ends in 9 months
$1.3m Vol.🔥$329k today$291k Liq.18Ends in 9 months
64%
↓ 3.25%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$14.7m Vol.
$1.3m Liq.
🔥$275k today
59
Ends in 9 months
$14.7m Vol.🔥$275k today$1.3m Liq.59Ends in 9 months
38%
0 (0 bps)
Fed Decision in July?
$2.4m Vol.
$267k Liq.
🔥$236k today
Ends in 4 months
$2.4m Vol.🔥$236k today$267k Liq.Ends in 4 months
78%
No change
Fed Decision in June?
$4.6m Vol.
$919k Liq.
🔥$229k today
11
Ends in 3 months
$4.6m Vol.🔥$229k today$919k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
87%
No change
25%
Yes
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?
$434k Vol.
$23k Liq.
11
Ends in about 2 months
$434k Vol.$23k Liq.11Ends in about 2 months
54%
May 15
63%
December Meeting
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.8m Vol.
$140k Liq.
36
Ends in about 1 month
$1.8m Vol.$140k Liq.36Ends in about 1 month
2%
May 14
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
$1.6m Vol.
$257k Liq.
11
Ends in 9 months
$1.6m Vol.$257k Liq.11Ends in 9 months
90%
SpaceX
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
$70k Vol.
$20k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$70k Vol.$20k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
18%
Yes
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$96k Vol.
$48k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$96k Vol.$48k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
49%
US x Iran Ceasefire
78%
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