Jerome Powell Predictions & Odds· 138 markets
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.8m Vol.
$166k Liq.
36
Ends in about 1 month
$1.8m Vol.$166k Liq.36Ends in about 1 month
2%
May 14
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition
$145k Vol.
$12k Liq.
2
Ends in about 16 hours
$145k Vol.$12k Liq.2Ends in about 16 hours
100%
Yes
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?
$234k Vol.
$31k Liq.
33
Ends in 3 months
$234k Vol.$31k Liq.33Ends in 3 months
3%
Yes
Will Trump try to Fire Powell by March 31?
$48k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in about 16 hours
$48k Vol.$15k Liq.Ends in about 16 hours
0%
Yes
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
$117k Vol.
$20k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months
$117k Vol.$20k Liq.8Ends in 9 months
71%
December 31
Trump · Fed Rates
Trump drops Powell investigation by…?
$4k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$4k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 3 months
62%
June 30
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$15.6m Vol.
$1.8m Liq.
🔥$486k today
70
Ends in 7 months
$15.6m Vol.🔥$486k today$1.8m Liq.70Ends in 7 months
96%
Kevin Warsh
Fed decision in April?
$37.8m Vol.
$3.2m Liq.
🔥$1.6m today
18
Ends in 30 days
$37.8m Vol.🔥$1.6m today$3.2m Liq.18Ends in 30 days
97%
No change
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$5.9m Vol.
$379k Liq.
🔥$502k today
5
Ends in 8 months
$5.9m Vol.🔥$502k today$379k Liq.5Ends in 8 months
33%
3.75%
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$1.3m Vol.
$303k Liq.
🔥$440k today
15
Ends in 9 months
$1.3m Vol.🔥$440k today$303k Liq.15Ends in 9 months
60%
↓ 3.25%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$14.6m Vol.
$1.3m Liq.
🔥$286k today
54
Ends in 9 months
$14.6m Vol.🔥$286k today$1.3m Liq.54Ends in 9 months
39%
0 (0 bps)
Fed Decision in June?
$4.6m Vol.
$864k Liq.
🔥$237k today
11
Ends in 3 months
$4.6m Vol.🔥$237k today$864k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
87%
No change
Fed Decision in July?
$2.3m Vol.
$272k Liq.
🔥$169k today
Ends in 4 months
$2.3m Vol.🔥$169k today$272k Liq.Ends in 4 months
78%
No change
25%
Yes
62%
December Meeting
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?
$239k Vol.
$18k Liq.
11
Ends in about 16 hours
$239k Vol.$18k Liq.11Ends in about 16 hours
14%
4.5%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
$153k Vol.
$18k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$153k Vol.$18k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
85%
4.5%
81%
Pause–Pause–Pause
97%
Pause–Pause–Pause
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?
$10k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 30 days
$10k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in 30 days
44%
2