Jerome Powell Predictions & Odds· 253 markets
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?
$243k Vol.
$21k Liq.
33
Ends in 3 months
$243k Vol.$21k Liq.33Ends in 3 months
3%
Yes
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.8m Vol.
$140k Liq.
36
Ends in about 1 month
$1.8m Vol.$140k Liq.36Ends in about 1 month
2%
May 14
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition
$145k Vol.
$12k Liq.
2
Ends in about 13 hours
$145k Vol.$12k Liq.2Ends in about 13 hours
100%
Yes
Trump · Fed Rates
Trump drops Powell investigation by…?
$4k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$4k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 3 months
61%
June 30
Will Trump try to Fire Powell by March 31?
$48k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
$48k Vol.$15k Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
0%
Yes
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
$117k Vol.
$22k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months
$117k Vol.$22k Liq.8Ends in 9 months
71%
December 31
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$15.6m Vol.
$2.0m Liq.
🔥$398k today
73
Ends in 7 months
$15.6m Vol.🔥$398k today$2.0m Liq.73Ends in 7 months
96%
Kevin Warsh
Fed decision in April?
$38.4m Vol.
$3.0m Liq.
🔥$1.9m today
18
Ends in 30 days
$38.4m Vol.🔥$1.9m today$3.0m Liq.18Ends in 30 days
97%
No change
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$5.9m Vol.
$355k Liq.
🔥$422k today
8
Ends in 8 months
$5.9m Vol.🔥$422k today$355k Liq.8Ends in 8 months
34%
3.75%
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$1.3m Vol.
$291k Liq.
🔥$329k today
18
Ends in 9 months
$1.3m Vol.🔥$329k today$291k Liq.18Ends in 9 months
64%
↓ 3.25%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$14.7m Vol.
$1.3m Liq.
🔥$275k today
59
Ends in 9 months
$14.7m Vol.🔥$275k today$1.3m Liq.59Ends in 9 months
38%
0 (0 bps)
Fed Decision in July?
$2.4m Vol.
$260k Liq.
🔥$235k today
Ends in 4 months
$2.4m Vol.🔥$235k today$260k Liq.Ends in 4 months
78%
No change
Fed Decision in June?
$4.6m Vol.
$919k Liq.
🔥$229k today
11
Ends in 3 months
$4.6m Vol.🔥$229k today$919k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
87%
No change
25%
Yes
63%
December Meeting
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?
$240k Vol.
$19k Liq.
11
Ends in about 13 hours
$240k Vol.$19k Liq.11Ends in about 13 hours
7%
4.5%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
$154k Vol.
$22k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$154k Vol.$22k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
88%
4.5%
83%
Pause–Pause–Pause
97%
Pause–Pause–Pause
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?
$10k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 30 days
$10k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in 30 days
42%
1