FOMC Predictions & Odds· 210 markets

Fed decision in April?

Fed decision in April?

$37.8m Vol.
$3.2m Liq.
🔥$1.6m today
18
Ends in 30 days

97%

No change

Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

$4.6m Vol.
$863k Liq.
🔥$237k today
11
Ends in 3 months

87%

No change

Fed Decision in July?

Fed Decision in July?

$2.3m Vol.
$272k Liq.
🔥$169k today
Ends in 4 months

78%

No change

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

$713k Vol.
$111k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

83%

Pause–Pause–Pause

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

$390k Vol.
$102k Liq.
17
Ends in 30 days

97%

Pause–Pause–Pause

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

$10k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 30 days

44%

2

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

$752 Vol.
$129k Liq.
Ends in 4 months

73%

Pause–Pause–Pause

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

$5.9m Vol.
$377k Liq.
🔥$500k today
5
Ends in 8 months

33%

3.75%

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

$1.3m Vol.
$304k Liq.
🔥$434k today
15
Ends in 9 months

60%

↓ 3.25%

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$14.6m Vol.
$1.3m Liq.
🔥$286k today
54
Ends in 9 months

39%

0 (0 bps)

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...?

$1.2m Vol.
$180k Liq.
15
Ends in 3 months

63%

December Meeting

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

$70k Vol.
$20k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months

19%

Yes

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

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Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

$26k Vol.
$41k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

78%

Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%

Powell says "inflation" 15+ times in FOMC statement?

Powell says "inflation" 15+ times in FOMC statement?

$32k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

Yes

Powell says "unemployment" 5+ times in FOMC statement?

No

Fed Decision & Dissent Combo in January?

Fed Decision & Dissent Combo in January?

$33k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

No change, Dissents: ≥2

Fed decision & dissent combo in December?

Fed decision & dissent combo in December?

$103k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

25bp cut, Dissents: >2

Powell Bingo: March

Powell Bingo: March

$0 Vol.
$0 Liq.
2
Ended

Yes

What will Powell say during March Press Conference?

What will Powell say during March Press Conference?

$49k Vol.
$0 Liq.
47
Ended

Inflation 40+ times

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

$0 Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

1