Fed Predictions & Odds

Finance·Fed

Fed Interest Rates: December 2023

$57k Vol.

$0 Liq.

6,519

Ended

0 bps increase?

Politics·Jerome Powell

Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds above ___ by Feb 20?

$2.0m Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

>5%

Politics·Derivatives

Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Friday?

$67k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

No

Politics·Fed

Fed cuts 25 bps in March Odds >15% by February 13?

$20k Vol.

$0 Liq.

1

Ended

Yes

Politics·Fed

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

$0 Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

1

Economy·Fed Rates

Will Christopher Waller dissent the next Fed Decision?

$18k Vol.

$0 Liq.

2

Ended

No

Economy·fomc

Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision?

$0 Vol.

$0 Liq.

4

Ended

Yes

Economy·Fed Rates

March Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" flips "Pause" by Feb 28?

$134k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

No

Economy·Derivatives

March Fed Derivative: Pause or Cut favored on Jan 28?

$10k Vol.

$0 Liq.

1

Ended

No change

Economy·Fed

US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first?

$58k Vol.

$0 Liq.

5

Ends in 9 months

Trump Announce Fed

Economy·Fed

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

$104k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

2

Politics·Derivatives

'No change' or '25 bps cut' favored for Fed decision in January on December 10?

$25k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

No change

Economy·Derivatives

Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?

$40k Vol.

$0 Liq.

7

Ended

>20%

Economy·Fed

Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" Odds by December 5?

$10k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

↓ 80%

Economy·Fed

Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bps cut" favored on December 9?

$66k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

25bps cut

Economy·Fed

Fed Derivative: "No Change" flips "25bps cut" by December 9?

$55k Vol.

$0 Liq.

1

Ended

No

Economy·Fed

Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bps cut" favored on Friday?

$21k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

25bps cut

Economy·Fed

Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bp cut" favored on Monday?

$368k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

25bps cut

Economy·Fed Rates

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

$426k Vol.

$0 Liq.

1

Ended

Cut–Pause–Pause

Finance·Jerome Powell

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

$232k Vol.

$0 Liq.

1

Ended

3

Fed Predictions & Odds· 1297 markets

Fed Interest Rates: December 2023

Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds above ___ by Feb 20?

Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Friday?

Fed cuts 25 bps in March Odds >15% by February 13?

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

Will Christopher Waller dissent the next Fed Decision?

Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision?

March Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" flips "Pause" by Feb 28?

March Fed Derivative: Pause or Cut favored on Jan 28?

US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first?

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

'No change' or '25 bps cut' favored for Fed decision in January on December 10?

Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?

Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" Odds by December 5?

Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bps cut" favored on December 9?

Fed Derivative: "No Change" flips "25bps cut" by December 9?

Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bps cut" favored on Friday?

Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bp cut" favored on Monday?

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

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