Fivethirtyeight Predictions & Odds· 100 markets
What will Dow Jones (DJIA) hit in March?
$889 Vol.
$836 Liq.
Ends in 1 day
$889 Vol.$836 Liq.Ends in 1 day
47%
↓ 39000
S&P 500 · Indicies
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?
$16k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$16k Vol.$21k Liq.Ends in 3 months
86%
↓ $6,300
2026 U.S. House election: Republicans flip the Democrats by...?
$55k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$55k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
0%
Yes
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
$24k Vol.
$35k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$24k Vol.$35k Liq.Ends in 9 months
95%
↓ $6,200
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
$27k Vol.
$1k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$27k Vol.$1k Liq.4Ends in 9 months
29%
Yes
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?
$2k Vol.
$10k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 months
$2k Vol.$10k Liq.2Ends in 7 months
92%
Yes
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
$0 Vol.
$8k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 months
$0 Vol.$8k Liq.2Ends in 7 months
82%
Yes
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$29k Vol.
$16k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$29k Vol.$16k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
41%
April 30
What will Trump say this week? (April 5)
$3k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
$3k Vol.$10k Liq.Ends in 5 days
90%
Sunday
How late will Leavitt be to the next press briefing?
$1k Vol.
$6k Liq.
1
Ends in about 7 hours
$1k Vol.$6k Liq.1Ends in about 7 hours
42%
<15 minutes
What will Trump post this week? (March 30 - April 5)
$7k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
$7k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 5 days
72%
Happy Easter
17%
Isfahan nuclear facility
What will Apple (AAPL) hit in April 2026?
$1k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$1k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
94%
↓ $248
Zelenskyy # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
$578 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$578 Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 8 days
46%
60-79
What will Trump say in April?
$14k Vol.
$35k Liq.
11
Ends in about 1 month
$14k Vol.$35k Liq.11Ends in about 1 month
93%
Jesus
38%
Yes
Republican 2026 House odds hit___ by March 31?
$293k Vol.
$79k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$293k Vol.$79k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
2%
↓ 10%
Eurovision 2026: Top 5
$37k Vol.
$156k Liq.
2
Ends in about 2 months
$37k Vol.$156k Liq.2Ends in about 2 months
82%
Finland
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
$206k Vol.
$78k Liq.
6
Ends in 6 months
$206k Vol.$78k Liq.6Ends in 6 months
39%
Lula da Silva <5%
85%
Republican Party