Foreign Affairs Predictions & Odds· 105 markets
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?
$8k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$8k Vol.$15k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
20%
April 30
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$8k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$8k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
13%
Yes
Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?
$126k Vol.
$14k Liq.
21
Ends in about 5 hours
$126k Vol.$14k Liq.21Ends in about 5 hours
0%
Yes
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
$1.5m Vol.
$20k Liq.
78
Ends in 3 months
$1.5m Vol.$20k Liq.78Ends in 3 months
14%
June 30
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$29k Vol.
$12k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$29k Vol.$12k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
42%
April 30
16%
Isfahan nuclear facility
45%
Yes
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
$413k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$413k Vol.$24k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
30%
June 30
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
$600k Vol.
$18k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$600k Vol.$18k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
11%
December 31, 2026
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
$153k Vol.
$12k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$153k Vol.$12k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
25%
Yes
Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?
$1.7m Vol.
$40k Liq.
34
Ends in 9 months
$1.7m Vol.$40k Liq.34Ends in 9 months
16%
December 31, 2026
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$100k Vol.
$11k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$11k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
$58k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$58k Vol.$9k Liq.Ends in 9 months
21%
Yes
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
$701k Vol.
$91k Liq.
34
Ends in 9 months
$701k Vol.$91k Liq.34Ends in 9 months
34%
7
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
$369k Vol.
$146k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$369k Vol.$146k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
57%
Pakistan
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31?
$98k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$98k Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
0%
Yes
93%
April 30
Will any European country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?
$45k Vol.
$16k Liq.
2
Ends in about 5 hours
$45k Vol.$16k Liq.2Ends in about 5 hours
0%
Yes
Will Vance visit the Middle East by..?
$98k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$98k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
17%
April 10