Global Security Predictions & Odds

Politics·nuclear weapons

Will a nuclear weapon detonate by...?

$698k Vol.

$7 Liq.

30

Ended

June 30, 2023

Politics·Russia

Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine before October?

$316k Vol.

$0 Liq.

28

Ended

No

Geopolitics·Trump x Saudi

US x Saudi security agreement by November 30?

$185k Vol.

$0 Liq.

65

Ended

Yes

Finance·COIN

Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on March 25?

$33k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

Up

Finance·COIN

Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on March 27?

$5k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

Down

Finance·COIN

Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on March 26?

$2k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

Down

Economy·Trade War

54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday?

$235k Vol.

$0 Liq.

211

Ended

Yes

Politics·security

Iran in possession of nuclear weapons by EoY?

$18k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

No

Geopolitics·global politics

Nepal intervention by September 30?

$14k Vol.

$0 Liq.

1

Ended

No

Politics·global politics

Ukraine responsible for Moscow attack?

$350k Vol.

$0 Liq.

-12

Ended

No

Politics·intervention

Haiti intervention in March?

$25k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

No

Politics·global politics

Haiti intervention by April 30?

$3k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

No

Global Temp · Science

Global Heat Increase 2024

$14.5m Vol.

$0 Liq.

133

Ended

1.28-1.30

Business · hacker

LockBit releases hacked London Drugs data by noon Friday?

$3k Vol.

$0 Liq.

25

Ended

Yes

Politics·Middle East

Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by...?

$152k Vol.

$0 Liq.

20

Ended

September 15

Geopolitics·Ukraine

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee in 2025?

$209k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

No

Geopolitics·Trump

Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by Jan 31?

$143k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

No

All

2023 FIDE World Chess Championship

$86k Vol.

$0 Liq.

2

Ended

12 or more games?

Politics·Israel

Major cyberattack on Iran in June?

$17.4m Vol.

$0 Liq.

4,582

Ended

Yes

All

Spanish Election

$10k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

Will PP win a plurality?

Global Security Predictions & Odds· 116 markets

Will a nuclear weapon detonate by...?

Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine before October?

US x Saudi security agreement by November 30?

Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on March 25?

Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on March 27?

Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on March 26?

54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday?

Iran in possession of nuclear weapons by EoY?

Nepal intervention by September 30?

Ukraine responsible for Moscow attack?

Haiti intervention in March?

Haiti intervention by April 30?

Global Heat Increase 2024

LockBit releases hacked London Drugs data by noon Friday?

Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by...?

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee in 2025?

Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by Jan 31?

2023 FIDE World Chess Championship

Major cyberattack on Iran in June?

Spanish Election

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