Intelligence Predictions & Odds· 781 markets

D
Did Israeli intelligence have advanced knowledge of the Attack?

Israel · intelligence

Did Israeli intelligence have advanced knowledge of the Attack?

$598k Vol.
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290
Ended

No

W
Who will be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?

Tulsi Gabbard

W
Will Trump announce cutting military aid to Ukraine by...?

December 31

N
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

$169k Vol.
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36
Ended

Yes

A
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?

$1.0m Vol.
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Ended

No

W
What will Trump say during his AI speech on July 23?

What will Trump say during his AI speech on July 23?

$404k Vol.
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124
Ended

China 7+ times

O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024?

artificial general intelligence · technology

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024?

$907k Vol.
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54
Ended

No

O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before July?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before July?

$195k Vol.
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22
Ended

No

O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

$337k Vol.
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31
Ended

No

W
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

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Ends in 9 months

Pam Bondi

F
First out of Trump Cabinet by end of 2026? (Duplicate)

Hide From New

First out of Trump Cabinet by end of 2026? (Duplicate)

$73k Vol.
$394 Liq.
Ends in 9 months

Stephen Miran

W
Will Biden declassify Russia security threat by Friday?

Will Biden declassify Russia security threat by Friday?

$17k Vol.
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2
Ended

Yes

U
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?

$118k Vol.
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Ended

No

U
U.S. strike on Somalia by March 7?

U.S. strike on Somalia by March 7?

$0 Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

No

I
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by...?

Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by...?

$0 Vol.
$0 Liq.
86
Ended

March 7

U
U.S. strike on Somalia by March 7?

U.S. strike on Somalia by March 7?

$226k Vol.
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Ended

Yes