Intelligence Predictions & Odds· 771 markets

Did Israeli intelligence have advanced knowledge of the Attack?

Israel · intelligence

Did Israeli intelligence have advanced knowledge of the Attack?

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290
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No

Who will be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?

Tulsi Gabbard

Will Trump announce cutting military aid to Ukraine by...?

December 31

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

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36
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Yes

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?

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No

What will Trump say during his AI speech on July 23?

What will Trump say during his AI speech on July 23?

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China 7+ times

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024?

artificial general intelligence · technology

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024?

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54
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No

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before July?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before July?

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22
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No

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

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31
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No

First out of Trump Cabinet by end of 2026? (Duplicate)

Hide From New

First out of Trump Cabinet by end of 2026? (Duplicate)

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Ends in 9 months

Stephen Miran

Will Biden declassify Russia security threat by Friday?

Will Biden declassify Russia security threat by Friday?

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2
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Yes

U.S. strike on Somalia by March 7?

U.S. strike on Somalia by March 7?

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No

Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by...?

Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by...?

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86
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March 7

U.S. strike on Somalia by March 7?

U.S. strike on Somalia by March 7?

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Yes

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 7?

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 7?

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No

US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by...?

US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by...?

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Ended

March 7

Next Country US Strikes

Next Country US Strikes

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Ends in 9 months

Somalia