Artificial General Intelligence Predictions & Odds· 115 markets

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024?

artificial general intelligence · technology

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024?

$907k Vol.
$0 Liq.
54
Ended

No

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before July?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before July?

$195k Vol.
$0 Liq.
22
Ended

No

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

$337k Vol.
$0 Liq.
31
Ended

No

What will Trump say in December?

Mentions · Politics

What will Trump say in December?

$180k Vol.
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35
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The Apprentice

What will Elon Musk say during AMA on August 6?

What will Elon Musk say during AMA on August 6?

$37k Vol.
$0 Liq.
39
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Grok 5+ times

What will Trump say during meeting with NATO Secretary General today?

NATO 5+ times

Zhang Youxia seen in public by February 28?

Zhang Youxia seen in public by February 28?

$67k Vol.
$0 Liq.
8
Ended

No

What will Mark Rutte say during NATO Public Forum Address on June 24?

Defense 20+ times

What will John Oliver say during Last Week Tonight on February 22?

People 10+ times

OpenAI apologizes to Scarlett Johansson by Friday?

OpenAI apologizes to Scarlett Johansson by Friday?

$30k Vol.
$0 Liq.
23
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Yes

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

$169k Vol.
$0 Liq.
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Yes

Apple x OpenAI partnership announced in WWDC 2024?

Apple x OpenAI partnership announced in WWDC 2024?

$12k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

Yes

Scarlett Johansson sues OpenAI in May?

Scarlett Johansson sues OpenAI in May?

$16k Vol.
$0 Liq.
2
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No

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 before April?

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 before April?

$54k Vol.
$0 Liq.
4
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No

DeepSeek better than all OpenAI models before June?

DeepSeek better than all OpenAI models before June?

$52k Vol.
$0 Liq.
8
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No

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025?

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025?

$268k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

No

ChatGPT global AI chatbot market share on October 31?

80–81%

Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?

Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?

$315k Vol.
$0 Liq.
5
Ended

Yes

ChatGPT o3 released today?

ChatGPT o3 released today?

$19k Vol.
$0 Liq.
12
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Yes

U.S. enacts AI safety bill in 2025?

U.S. enacts AI safety bill in 2025?

$129k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

No