Artificial General Intelligence Predictions & Odds· 116 markets
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$45k Vol.
$5k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$45k Vol.$5k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
21%
Yes
22%
December 31, 2026
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
$73k Vol.
$6k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$73k Vol.$6k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
42%
Yes
OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
$3k Vol.
$479 Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$3k Vol.$479 Liq.1Ends in 3 months
36%
Yes
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
$70k Vol.
$30k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$70k Vol.$30k Liq.Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
8%
Yes
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
$27k Vol.
$1k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$27k Vol.$1k Liq.4Ends in 9 months
25%
Yes
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$100k Vol.
$6k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$6k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
27%
Yes
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?
$13k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
$13k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
3%
Yes
61%
Yes
82%
December 31, 2026
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$44k Vol.
$10k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$44k Vol.$10k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
18%
Yes
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
$1.4m Vol.
$71k Liq.
🔥$102k today
25
Ends in 3 months
$1.4m Vol.🔥$102k today$71k Liq.25Ends in 3 months
28%
OpenAI
Which company will have the best AI model for math on March 31?
$487k Vol.
$61k Liq.
3
Ends in about 13 hours
$487k Vol.$61k Liq.3Ends in about 13 hours
100%
OpenAI
Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)
$1.0m Vol.
$116k Liq.
1
Ends in about 13 hours
$1.0m Vol.$116k Liq.1Ends in about 13 hours
98%
Anthropic
Which company has the best AI model end of March?
$15.9m Vol.
$1.9m Liq.
🔥$259k today
Ends in about 13 hours
$15.9m Vol.🔥$259k today$1.9m Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
100%
Anthropic
Which company has second best AI model end of June?
$333k Vol.
$121k Liq.
52
Ends in 3 months
$333k Vol.$121k Liq.52Ends in 3 months
50%
Anthropic
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
$475k Vol.
$176k Liq.
22
Ends in 3 months
$475k Vol.$176k Liq.22Ends in 3 months
49%
Anthropic