Outage Predictions & Odds· 344 markets
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?
$13k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
$13k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
3%
Yes
8%
Yes
Middle East · Iran Regime
Internet Access restored in Iran by...?
$100k Vol.
$13k Liq.
27
Ends in about 1 month
$100k Vol.$13k Liq.27Ends in about 1 month
17%
April 30
Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?
$344k Vol.
$26k Liq.
23
Ends in 3 months
$344k Vol.$26k Liq.23Ends in 3 months
75%
May 31
Will Claude go down on __ days in April?
$9k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$9k Vol.$18k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
41%
9-11
Critical Discord Incident by April 30?
$2k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$2k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
20%
Yes
AWS service disrupted by April 30?
$730 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$730 Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
57%
Yes
Services Down Parlay
$13k Vol.
$2k Liq.
5
Ends in about 13 hours
$13k Vol.$2k Liq.5Ends in about 13 hours
4%
Yes
AWS service disrupted by March 31?
$13k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
$13k Vol.$1k Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
4%
Yes
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on March 30?
$28k Vol.
$10 Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$28k Vol.$10 Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
49%
Up
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on March 30?
$7k Vol.
$259 Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$7k Vol.$259 Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
35%
Up
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on March 30?
$2k Vol.
$430 Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$2k Vol.$430 Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
48%
Up
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on March 30?
$1k Vol.
$89 Liq.
Ends in about 10 hours
$1k Vol.$89 Liq.Ends in about 10 hours
64%
Up
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on March 30?
$686 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in about 10 hours
$686 Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in about 10 hours
82%
Up
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on March 30?
$165 Vol.
$185 Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$165 Vol.$185 Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
53%
Up
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on March 30?
$94 Vol.
$218 Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$94 Vol.$218 Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
54%
Up
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on March 30?
$11 Vol.
$215 Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$11 Vol.$215 Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
55%
Up
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on March 30?
$12 Vol.
$380 Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$12 Vol.$380 Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
65%
Up
Meta (META) Up or Down on March 30?
$21 Vol.
$226 Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$21 Vol.$226 Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
60%
Up