Jerome Powell Predictions & Odds· 136 markets
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?
$243k Vol.
$22k Liq.
33
Ends in 3 months
$243k Vol.$22k Liq.33Ends in 3 months
3%
Yes
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.8m Vol.
$167k Liq.
36
Ends in about 1 month
$1.8m Vol.$167k Liq.36Ends in about 1 month
2%
May 14
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition
$145k Vol.
$12k Liq.
2
Ends in about 15 hours
$145k Vol.$12k Liq.2Ends in about 15 hours
100%
Yes
Trump · Fed Rates
Trump drops Powell investigation by…?
$4k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$4k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 3 months
61%
June 30
Will Trump try to Fire Powell by March 31?
$48k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in about 15 hours
$48k Vol.$15k Liq.Ends in about 15 hours
0%
Yes
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
$117k Vol.
$19k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months
$117k Vol.$19k Liq.8Ends in 9 months
71%
December 31
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$15.6m Vol.
$2.0m Liq.
🔥$439k today
72
Ends in 7 months
$15.6m Vol.🔥$439k today$2.0m Liq.72Ends in 7 months
95%
Kevin Warsh
Fed decision in April?
$38.0m Vol.
$3.1m Liq.
🔥$1.6m today
18
Ends in 30 days
$38.0m Vol.🔥$1.6m today$3.1m Liq.18Ends in 30 days
97%
No change
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$5.9m Vol.
$346k Liq.
🔥$467k today
7
Ends in 8 months
$5.9m Vol.🔥$467k today$346k Liq.7Ends in 8 months
34%
3.75%
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$1.3m Vol.
$249k Liq.
🔥$374k today
17
Ends in 9 months
$1.3m Vol.🔥$374k today$249k Liq.17Ends in 9 months
60%
↓ 3.25%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$14.6m Vol.
$1.2m Liq.
🔥$272k today
57
Ends in 9 months
$14.6m Vol.🔥$272k today$1.2m Liq.57Ends in 9 months
38%
0 (0 bps)
Fed Decision in June?
$4.6m Vol.
$862k Liq.
🔥$245k today
11
Ends in 3 months
$4.6m Vol.🔥$245k today$862k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
87%
No change
Fed Decision in July?
$2.4m Vol.
$271k Liq.
🔥$210k today
Ends in 4 months
$2.4m Vol.🔥$210k today$271k Liq.Ends in 4 months
78%
No change
25%
Yes
63%
December Meeting
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?
$239k Vol.
$18k Liq.
11
Ends in about 15 hours
$239k Vol.$18k Liq.11Ends in about 15 hours
12%
4.5%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
$154k Vol.
$21k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$154k Vol.$21k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
88%
4.5%
81%
Pause–Pause–Pause
97%
Pause–Pause–Pause
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?
$10k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 30 days
$10k Vol.$21k Liq.Ends in 30 days
44%
2