Machine Learning Predictions & Odds· 102 markets

Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters?

machine learning · technology

Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters?

$144k Vol.
$0 Liq.
19
Ended
OpenAI apologizes to Scarlett Johansson by Friday?

OpenAI apologizes to Scarlett Johansson by Friday?

$30k Vol.
$0 Liq.
23
Ended

Yes

Scarlett Johansson sues OpenAI in May?

Scarlett Johansson sues OpenAI in May?

$16k Vol.
$0 Liq.
2
Ended

No

Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before July?

Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before July?

$17k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

No

# of Elon Musk tweets between May 17 and May 24?

# of Elon Musk tweets between May 17 and May 24?

$275k Vol.
$0 Liq.
19
Ended

75-84

How high will AI score on ARC-AGI-2?

How high will AI score on ARC-AGI-2?

$269k Vol.
$0 Liq.
4
Ended

≥85% by November 3

First Score Method

Super Bowl Props · Sports

First Score Method

$10k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
# of Elon Musk tweets between May 10 and May 17?

# of Elon Musk tweets between May 10 and May 17?

$487k Vol.
$0 Liq.
36
Ended

<60

# of Elon Musk tweets between April 26 and May 3?

Business · Twitter

# of Elon Musk tweets between April 26 and May 3?

$573k Vol.
$0 Liq.
34
Ended

60-79

What will Reddit say during their next earnings call?

Reddit Pro 3+ times

# of Elon Musk tweets between May 24 and May 31?

# of Elon Musk tweets between May 24 and May 31?

$250k Vol.
$0 Liq.
18
Ended

<55

Will Stanley Tang lose all his chips? - Million Dollar Game Day 4

Million Dollar Game · Poker warning

Will Stanley Tang lose all his chips? - Million Dollar Game Day 4

$1k Vol.
$0 Liq.
3
Ended

No

Apple x OpenAI partnership announced in WWDC 2024?

Apple x OpenAI partnership announced in WWDC 2024?

$12k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

Yes

How many reposts will MrBeast's $250k giveaway get?

MrBeast · social media

How many reposts will MrBeast's $250k giveaway get?

$295k Vol.
$0 Liq.
45
Ended

3.9m+ (Most reposts of all time)

Ben Armstrong (Bitboy) vs. More Light: Who will win?

All · Sports

Ben Armstrong (Bitboy) vs. More Light: Who will win?

$62k Vol.
$0 Liq.
5
Ended

Ben Armstrong

What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in December 2025?

What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in December 2025?

$122k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

↑ $192

# of Elon Musk tweets between May 3 and May 10?

Twitter · X

# of Elon Musk tweets between May 3 and May 10?

$491k Vol.
$0 Liq.
33
Ended

90-104

OpenAI public release of search product by Friday?

All · AI

OpenAI public release of search product by Friday?

$45k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

No

# of Conservative seats after UK Election? (125-200)

# of Conservative seats after UK Election? (125-200)

$283k Vol.
$0 Liq.
5
Ended

<125

UK Election: Labour % of the vote?

UK Election · Global Elections

UK Election: Labour % of the vote?

$113k Vol.
$0 Liq.
4
Ended

30-35%