Primary Ballot Predictions & Odds· 116 markets
B
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
$85k Vol.
$17k Liq.
-2
Ends in 3 months
$85k Vol.$17k Liq.-2Ends in 3 months
69%
Yes
W
Will any Illinois Dem House incumbent lose their primary?
$413 Vol.
$6 Liq.
5
Ended
$413 Vol.$6 Liq.5Ended
2%
Yes
P
Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?
$46k Vol.
$41k Liq.
2
Ends in about 2 months
$46k Vol.$41k Liq.2Ends in about 2 months
72%
Dem-Rep
H
How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
$40k Vol.
$2k Liq.
1
$40k Vol.$2k Liq.1
40%
7-9
H
51%
2
H
How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?
$4k Vol.
$9k Liq.
1
$4k Vol.$9k Liq.1
82%
0
H
How many Democratic House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
$229 Vol.
$581 Liq.
$229 Vol.$581 Liq.
72%
4-6
B
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
$2.8m Vol.
$82k Liq.
13
Ends in 7 months
$2.8m Vol.$82k Liq.13Ends in 7 months
34%
Yes
T
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election?
$8k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$8k Vol.$18k Liq.Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
T
Trump declares election interference national emergency?
$138k Vol.
$12k Liq.
11
Ends in 9 months
$138k Vol.$12k Liq.11Ends in 9 months
26%
Yes
T
Trump's mail-in voting executive order blocked in April?
$2k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$2k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in 27 days
95%
Yes
W
92%
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
G
Guam Governor Democratic Primary Winner
$12k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 4 months
$12k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in 4 months
54%
Josh Tenorio
W
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?
$104k Vol.
$111k Liq.
2
Ends in 5 months
$104k Vol.$111k Liq.2Ends in 5 months
80%
Tom Begich
I
98%
Stratton 6–9%
T
64%
Talarico & Paxton
W
Who will advance from the California Governor primary?
$428k Vol.
$1.5m Liq.
1
Ends in about 2 months
$428k Vol.$1.5m Liq.1Ends in about 2 months
68%
Eric Swalwell
T
Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff
$4k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$4k Vol.$9k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
34%
0.6–0.9M
N
New York Democratic Governor Primary Winner
$47k Vol.
$100k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$47k Vol.$100k Liq.4Ends in 3 months
95%
Kathy Hochul
G
Guam Governor Republican Primary Winner
$22k Vol.
$41k Liq.
2
Ends in 4 months
$22k Vol.$41k Liq.2Ends in 4 months
72%
Vicente Ada