Primary Ballot Predictions & Odds· 115 markets
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
$85k Vol.
$9k Liq.
-1
Ends in 3 months
$85k Vol.$9k Liq.-1Ends in 3 months
69%
Yes
Will any Illinois Dem House incumbent lose their primary?
$0 Vol.
$855 Liq.
5
Ended
$0 Vol.$855 Liq.5Ended
2%
Yes
Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?
$45k Vol.
$33k Liq.
2
Ends in 2 months
$45k Vol.$33k Liq.2Ends in 2 months
69%
Dem-Rep
50%
2
81%
0
40%
7-9
73%
4-6
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
$2.8m Vol.
$48k Liq.
14
Ends in 7 months
$2.8m Vol.$48k Liq.14Ends in 7 months
35%
Yes
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election?
$4k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$4k Vol.$15k Liq.Ends in 3 months
9%
Yes
Trump declares election interference national emergency?
$136k Vol.
$10k Liq.
11
Ends in 9 months
$136k Vol.$10k Liq.11Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
90%
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Guam Governor Democratic Primary Winner
$10k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 4 months
$10k Vol.$22k Liq.Ends in 4 months
59%
Josh Tenorio
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?
$36k Vol.
$68k Liq.
2
Ends in 5 months
$36k Vol.$68k Liq.2Ends in 5 months
80%
Tom Begich
98%
Stratton 6–9%
Who will advance from the California Governor primary?
$393k Vol.
$355k Liq.
2
Ends in 2 months
$393k Vol.$355k Liq.2Ends in 2 months
64%
Eric Swalwell
Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff
$4k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$4k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
38%
0.6–0.9M
New York Democratic Governor Primary Winner
$47k Vol.
$31k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$47k Vol.$31k Liq.4Ends in 3 months
95%
Kathy Hochul
Guam Governor Republican Primary Winner
$15k Vol.
$24k Liq.
2
Ends in 4 months
$15k Vol.$24k Liq.2Ends in 4 months
72%
Vicente Ada
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?
$19k Vol.
$42k Liq.
Ends in 4 months
$19k Vol.$42k Liq.Ends in 4 months
69%
Yes