Primary Ballot Predictions & Odds· 150 markets
B
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
$85k Vol.
$10k Liq.
-2
Ends in 3 months
$85k Vol.$10k Liq.-2Ends in 3 months
69%
Yes
W
Will any Illinois Dem House incumbent lose their primary?
$413 Vol.
$188 Liq.
5
Ended
$413 Vol.$188 Liq.5Ended
2%
Yes
P
Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?
$46k Vol.
$35k Liq.
2
Ends in 2 months
$46k Vol.$35k Liq.2Ends in 2 months
72%
Dem-Rep
H
How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
$31k Vol.
$2k Liq.
1
$31k Vol.$2k Liq.1
40%
7-9
H
How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?
$4k Vol.
$9k Liq.
1
$4k Vol.$9k Liq.1
82%
0
H
51%
2
H
72%
4-6
B
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
$2.8m Vol.
$54k Liq.
13
Ends in 7 months
$2.8m Vol.$54k Liq.13Ends in 7 months
34%
Yes
T
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election?
$8k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$8k Vol.$11k Liq.Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
T
Trump's mail-in voting executive order blocked in April?
$966 Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 28 days
$966 Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 28 days
90%
Yes
T
Trump declares election interference national emergency?
$136k Vol.
$12k Liq.
11
Ends in 9 months
$136k Vol.$12k Liq.11Ends in 9 months
27%
Yes
W
90%
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
G
Guam Governor Democratic Primary Winner
$12k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 4 months
$12k Vol.$11k Liq.Ends in 4 months
54%
Josh Tenorio
I
98%
Stratton 6–9%
W
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?
$101k Vol.
$86k Liq.
2
Ends in 5 months
$101k Vol.$86k Liq.2Ends in 5 months
80%
Tom Begich
T
Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff
$4k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$4k Vol.$9k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
31%
0.6–0.9M
W
Who will advance from the California Governor primary?
$422k Vol.
$1.1m Liq.
1
Ends in 2 months
$422k Vol.$1.1m Liq.1Ends in 2 months
64%
Eric Swalwell
T
66%
Talarico & Paxton
N
New York Democratic Governor Primary Winner
$47k Vol.
$83k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$47k Vol.$83k Liq.4Ends in 3 months
95%
Kathy Hochul
G
Guam Governor Republican Primary Winner
$15k Vol.
$24k Liq.
2
Ends in 4 months
$15k Vol.$24k Liq.2Ends in 4 months
72%
Vicente Ada