Reconcilliation Predictions & Odds· 100 markets
Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition
$90k Vol.
$3k Liq.
13
Ends in about 6 hours
$90k Vol.$3k Liq.13Ends in about 6 hours
99%
Yes
Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory
$39k Vol.
$97k Liq.
1
Ends in about 2 months
$39k Vol.$97k Liq.1Ends in about 2 months
35%
Paxton 9%+
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
$51k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$51k Vol.$18k Liq.Ends in 9 months
13%
Yes
Khamenei # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$19k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
$19k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in 4 days
88%
<20
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$100k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
28%
Yes
87%
Democratic Party
91%
Democratic Party
Zelenskyy # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
$578 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$578 Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 8 days
47%
60-79
Khamenei # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
$2k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$2k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 8 days
32%
<5
64%
Republican Party
93%
Republican Party
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?
$2k Vol.
$10k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 months
$2k Vol.$10k Liq.2Ends in 7 months
92%
Yes
"I beat Bush" Epstein Email Sender confirmed as ___ ?
$3k Vol.
$18k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$3k Vol.$18k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
69%
Not revealed in 2026
Peru Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
$7k Vol.
$63k Liq.
Ends in 12 days
$7k Vol.$63k Liq.Ends in 12 days
27%
Keiko Fujimori <5%
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
$0 Vol.
$8k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 months
$0 Vol.$8k Liq.2Ends in 7 months
82%
Yes
Geopolitics · World
Next leader out of power before 2027?
$3.4m Vol.
$539k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$3.4m Vol.$539k Liq.Ends in 9 months
60%
Orbán - Hungary PM
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
$74k Vol.
$22k Liq.
14
Ends in 9 months
$74k Vol.$22k Liq.14Ends in 9 months
2%
Yes
Zelenskyy # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$3k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
$3k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 4 days
41%
60-79
Khamenei # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?
$26k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in about 22 hours
$26k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in about 22 hours
96%
<20