Shutdown Predictions & Odds· 117 markets

W
Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries?

Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries?

$34k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 14 days

1%

Yes

W
When will the DHS shutdown end?

When will the DHS shutdown end?

$529k Vol.
$162k Liq.
1
Ends in 30 days

36%

After April 30

W
When will the DHS shutdown end?

When will the DHS shutdown end?

$1.7m Vol.
$78k Liq.
1
Ended

100%

After March 31

H
How long will the DHS shutdown last?

How long will the DHS shutdown last?

$1.2m Vol.
$47k Liq.
1
Ended

100%

48+ days

A
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

$254k Vol.
$20k Liq.
12
Ends in 7 months

83%

Shutdown & Democratic Party

N
Number of US Flights Delayed March 29?

Number of US Flights Delayed March 29?

$22k Vol.
$195k Liq.
Ended

0%

Yes

W
Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?

Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?

$557k Vol.
$23k Liq.
28
Ended

51%

December 31, 2026

W
Who will vote "Yea" on the DHS Appropriations Act, 2026 by March 31?

5%

Jacky Rosen

W
What will Trump post this week? (March 30 - April 5)

What will Trump post this week? (March 30 - April 5)

$7k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 5 days

79%

Happy Easter

N
Number of TSA passengers March 30 - April 5?

Number of TSA passengers March 30 - April 5?

$3k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 5 days

43%

17.5-18m

N
Number of US Flights Delayed March 30?

Number of US Flights Delayed March 30?

$2k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ended

57%

5,000-5,500

O
Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 30?

Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 30?

$1k Vol.
$83 Liq.
Ended

3%

Yes

N
Number of US Flights Delayed March 31?

Number of US Flights Delayed March 31?

$306 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ended

41%

6,500-7,000

O
Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?

Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?

$486 Vol.
$303 Liq.
Ended

6%

Yes

N
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

$41k Vol.
$7k Liq.
15
Ends in 9 months

25%

Yes

M
Minneapolis Border Patrol Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?

Minneapolis Border Patrol Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?

$82k Vol.
$20k Liq.
8
Ended

2%

Yes

W
What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by March 31?

What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by March 31?

$379k Vol.
$13k Liq.
69

17%

Isfahan nuclear facility

I
ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?

ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?

$316k Vol.
$10k Liq.
28
Ended

0%

Yes

O
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

$100k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months

26%

Yes

W
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

$30k Vol.
$17k Liq.
4
Ends in 30 days

39%

April 30