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Artificial General Intelligence 预测与赔率· 116 个市场

全部 Politics Science Business Finance Trump Sam Altman AI Gpt OpenAI Grok Llm Artificial Intelligence Tech Outage Geopolitics Sam Altman Chatgpt Hegseth DeepSeek Big Tech GPT 5 Dod Gemini 3 Claude Dario Amodei

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

$45k 交易量

$7k 流动性

9

9 个月后结束

22%

Yes

AI bubble burst by...?

AI bubble burst by...?

$2.5m 交易量

$23k 流动性

79

9 个月后结束

22%

December 31, 2026

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

$73k 交易量

$5k 流动性

3

9 个月后结束

43%

Yes

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

$3k 交易量

$447 流动性

1

3 个月后结束

36%

Yes

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

Geopolitics·Business

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

$70k 交易量

$29k 流动性

3 个月后结束

11%

Yes

GPT-5.5 released by...?

GPT-5.5 released by...?

$296k 交易量

$13k 流动性

4

93%

June 30

ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10?

ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10?

$354 交易量

$3k 流动性

10 天后结束

8%

Yes

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

$27k 交易量

$935 流动性

4

9 个月后结束

29%

Yes

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

$100k 交易量

$5k 流动性

1

3 个月后结束

26%

Yes

ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?

ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?

$13k 交易量

$7k 流动性

大约 9 小时后结束

2%

Yes

$AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?$

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

$3k 交易量

$1k 流动性

9 个月后结束

61%

Yes

GPT-6 released by…?

GPT-6 released by…?

$358k 交易量

$34k 流动性

40

已结束

82%

December 31, 2026

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?

$45k 交易量

$10k 流动性

3

大约 1 个月后结束

18%

Yes

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

$1.4m 交易量

$80k 流动性

🔥$70k 今日

24

3 个月后结束

28%

OpenAI

ChatGPT Outage by...?

ChatGPT Outage by...?

$25k 交易量

$3k 流动性

已结束

14%

Yes

$Which company will have the best AI model for math on March 31?$

Which company will have the best AI model for math on March 31?

$488k 交易量

$56k 流动性

3

大约 9 小时后结束

100%

OpenAI

Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)

Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)

$1.0m 交易量

$111k 流动性

1

大约 9 小时后结束

99%

Anthropic

Which company has the best AI model end of March?

Which company has the best AI model end of March?

$15.9m 交易量

$1.5m 流动性

🔥$251k 今日

大约 9 小时后结束

100%

Anthropic

Which company has second best AI model end of June?

Which company has second best AI model end of June?

$333k 交易量

$112k 流动性

52

3 个月后结束

50%

Anthropic

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

$475k 交易量

$167k 流动性

22

3 个月后结束

49%

Anthropic