AI Development Predictions & Odds· 102 markets
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$100k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
26%
Yes
Meta "Mango" model released by...?
$4k Vol.
$5k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
$4k Vol.$5k Liq.3Ends in 3 months
40%
June 30
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$45k Vol.
$9k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months
$45k Vol.$9k Liq.10Ends in 9 months
22%
Yes
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
$73k Vol.
$7k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$73k Vol.$7k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
44%
Yes
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
$241k Vol.
$8k Liq.
32
Ended
$241k Vol.$8k Liq.32Ended
37%
December 31, 2026
Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027?
$0 Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$0 Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 9 months
9%
Yes
22%
December 31, 2026
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
$70k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$70k Vol.$24k Liq.Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
$27k Vol.
$1k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$27k Vol.$1k Liq.4Ends in 9 months
30%
Yes
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?
$12k Vol.
$4k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months
$12k Vol.$4k Liq.10Ends in 9 months
35%
Yes
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$803k Vol.
$106k Liq.
1
Ends in 30 days
$803k Vol.$106k Liq.1Ends in 30 days
85%
Anthropic
Which company will have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
$1.2m Vol.
$172k Liq.
21
Ended
$1.2m Vol.$172k Liq.21Ended
99%
OpenAI
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
$5k Vol.
$7k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$5k Vol.$7k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
26%
Yes
Which company has the #2 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$13k Vol.
$47k Liq.
Ends in 30 days
$13k Vol.$47k Liq.Ends in 30 days
82%
Anthropic
8%
Yes
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
$1.4m Vol.
$63k Liq.
25
Ends in 3 months
$1.4m Vol.$63k Liq.25Ends in 3 months
28%
OpenAI
Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$7k Vol.
$26k Liq.
Ends in 30 days
$7k Vol.$26k Liq.Ends in 30 days
36%
12%
Yes