AI Technology Predictions & Odds· 120 markets
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$45k Vol.
$9k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$45k Vol.$9k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
17%
Yes
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
$57k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in almost 2 years
$57k Vol.$3k Liq.1Ends in almost 2 years
96%
SpaceX
IPOs before 2027?
$5.2m Vol.
$145k Liq.
🔥$61k today
3
Ends in 9 months
$5.2m Vol.🔥$61k today$145k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
93%
SpaceX
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$45k Vol.
$6k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$45k Vol.$6k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
22%
Yes
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
$73k Vol.
$5k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$73k Vol.$5k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
42%
Yes
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?
$12k Vol.
$3k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months
$12k Vol.$3k Liq.10Ends in 9 months
35%
Yes
22%
December 31, 2026
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
$27k Vol.
$909 Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$27k Vol.$909 Liq.4Ends in 9 months
29%
Yes
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?
$13k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 4 hours
$13k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in about 4 hours
2%
Yes
8%
Yes
Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?
$1k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 15 days
$1k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in 15 days
82%
April 15
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
$241k Vol.
$7k Liq.
32
Ended
$241k Vol.$7k Liq.32Ended
44%
December 31, 2026
55%
Yes
Which company has the #2 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$13k Vol.
$47k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$13k Vol.$47k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
82%
Anthropic
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
$2.7m Vol.
$447k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$2.7m Vol.$447k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
89%
Anthropic
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
$70k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$70k Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$802k Vol.
$137k Liq.
🔥$136k today
Ends in about 1 month
$802k Vol.🔥$136k today$137k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
85%
Anthropic
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$100k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
27%
Yes
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
$1.4m Vol.
$50k Liq.
25
Ends in 3 months
$1.4m Vol.$50k Liq.25Ends in 3 months
28%
OpenAI
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
$102k Vol.
$4k Liq.
12
Ends in 9 months
$102k Vol.$4k Liq.12Ends in 9 months
38%
Head-mounted display