Artificial General Intelligence Predictions & Odds· 101 markets
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$45k Vol.
$6k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$45k Vol.$6k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
22%
Yes
22%
December 31, 2026
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
$73k Vol.
$5k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$73k Vol.$5k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
42%
Yes
OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
$3k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$3k Vol.$1k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
45%
Yes
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
$70k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$70k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
8%
Yes
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$100k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
27%
Yes
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?
$13k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 6 hours
$13k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in about 6 hours
2%
Yes
82%
December 31, 2026
61%
Yes
Claude Mythos released by…?
$42k Vol.
$14k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
$42k Vol.$14k Liq.1Ends in about 1 month
70%
June 30
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
$1.4m Vol.
$51k Liq.
25
Ends in 3 months
$1.4m Vol.$51k Liq.25Ends in 3 months
28%
OpenAI
Which company will have the best AI model for math on March 31?
$489k Vol.
$58k Liq.
3
Ends in about 6 hours
$489k Vol.$58k Liq.3Ends in about 6 hours
100%
OpenAI
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$45k Vol.
$10k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$45k Vol.$10k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
17%
Yes
Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)
$1.0m Vol.
$114k Liq.
1
Ends in about 6 hours
$1.0m Vol.$114k Liq.1Ends in about 6 hours
99%
Anthropic
Which company has second best AI model end of June?
$333k Vol.
$103k Liq.
52
Ends in 3 months
$333k Vol.$103k Liq.52Ends in 3 months
50%
Anthropic
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
$475k Vol.
$163k Liq.
22
Ends in 3 months
$475k Vol.$163k Liq.22Ends in 3 months
49%
Anthropic
Which company has best AI model end of June?
$2.9m Vol.
$389k Liq.
64
Ends in 3 months
$2.9m Vol.$389k Liq.64Ends in 3 months
65%
Anthropic
Which company will have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
$1.2m Vol.
$169k Liq.
21
Ends in about 6 hours
$1.2m Vol.$169k Liq.21Ends in about 6 hours
99%
OpenAI