Bank Failure Predictions & Odds· 106 markets
2%
Yes
Which banks will fail by June 30?
$357k Vol.
$102k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$357k Vol.$102k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
3%
Citigroup
27%
Yes
Bank of Israel Decision in May?
$11k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$11k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
79%
No Change
76%
25 bps Increase
63%
No change
54%
Decrease
Bank of Brazil Decision in April?
$175k Vol.
$30k Liq.
Ends in 28 days
$175k Vol.$30k Liq.Ends in 28 days
81%
Decrease
48%
Increase
85%
Nothing
Bank of Mexico Decision in May
$4k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$4k Vol.$15k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
80%
No change
Reserve Bank of India decision in April
$4k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$4k Vol.$13k Liq.Ends in 8 days
96%
No Change
South African Reserve Bank Decision in May?
$3k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$3k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
61%
No Change
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
$0 Vol.
$24k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$0 Vol.$24k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
5%
Yes
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
$12k Vol.
$14k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$12k Vol.$14k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
92%
Decrease