Climate Weather Predictions & Odds· 260 markets
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
$36k Vol.
$5k Liq.
4
Ends in 2 months
$36k Vol.$5k Liq.4Ends in 2 months
6%
Yes
Precipitation in NYC in March?
$176k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in about 6 hours
$176k Vol.$10k Liq.Ends in about 6 hours
89%
3-4"
Precipitation in Seattle in March?
$325k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 6 hours
$325k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in about 6 hours
94%
5-6"
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
$7.5m Vol.
$34k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$7.5m Vol.$34k Liq.Ends in 9 months
98%
↑2k
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$29k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$1.1m Vol.$29k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
28%
14–16
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?
$1.8m Vol.
$90k Liq.
22
Ends in 3 months
$1.8m Vol.$90k Liq.22Ends in 3 months
68%
8+
Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?
$390k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in about 6 hours
$390k Vol.$22k Liq.Ends in about 6 hours
0%
1600
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$171k Vol.
$8k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$171k Vol.$8k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
12%
Yes
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
$666k Vol.
$19k Liq.
9
Ends in about 1 year
$666k Vol.$19k Liq.9Ends in about 1 year
43%
1
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$530k Vol.
$26k Liq.
26
Ends in 9 months
$530k Vol.$26k Liq.26Ends in 9 months
6%
Yes
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$116k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$116k Vol.$9k Liq.Ends in 9 months
13%
Yes
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
$112k Vol.
$5k Liq.
5
Ends in 10 months
$112k Vol.$5k Liq.5Ends in 10 months
73%
Yes
March 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
$208k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
$208k Vol.$18k Liq.Ends in 10 days
48%
1.25–1.29ºC
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
$2.4m Vol.
$113k Liq.
20
Ends in 9 months
$2.4m Vol.$113k Liq.20Ends in 9 months
46%
2
How many Tornadoes in the US in March?
$158k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
$158k Vol.$18k Liq.Ends in 10 days
100%
150+
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$310k Vol.
$6k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$310k Vol.$6k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
39%
Yes
Precipitation in Seoul in March?
$33k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in about 6 hours
$33k Vol.$1k Liq.Ends in about 6 hours
51%
40-45mm
Natural Disaster · Science
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
$327k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
$327k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 2 months
42%
Yes
2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
$271k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
$271k Vol.$15k Liq.Ends in 10 days
98%
4th or lower
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
$11k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
$11k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 2 months
7%
Yes