Natural Disasters Predictions & Odds· 145 markets
30%
Yes
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
$666k Vol.
$22k Liq.
9
Ends in about 1 year
$666k Vol.$22k Liq.9Ends in about 1 year
43%
1
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
$38k Vol.
$19k Liq.
8
Ends in about 1 year
$38k Vol.$19k Liq.8Ends in about 1 year
12%
Yes
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?
$65k Vol.
$25k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
$65k Vol.$25k Liq.Ends in 2 months
100%
May 31
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$34k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$1.1m Vol.$34k Liq.Ends in 9 months
28%
11–13
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?
$1.7m Vol.
$74k Liq.
22
Ends in 3 months
$1.7m Vol.$74k Liq.22Ends in 3 months
66%
8+
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$528k Vol.
$27k Liq.
26
Ends in 9 months
$528k Vol.$27k Liq.26Ends in 9 months
6%
Yes
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$168k Vol.
$12k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$168k Vol.$12k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
13%
Yes
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$309k Vol.
$9k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$309k Vol.$9k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
39%
Yes
How many Tornadoes in the US in March?
$158k Vol.
$27k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
$158k Vol.$27k Liq.Ends in 10 days
100%
150+
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
$26k Vol.
$15k Liq.
1
Ends in 10 months
$26k Vol.$15k Liq.1Ends in 10 months
42%
1250+
Natural Disasters · Weather
How many Tornadoes in the US in April?
$515 Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$515 Vol.$10k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
41%
170–199
17%
Isfahan nuclear facility
Weather · earthquake
Megaquake by June 30?
$23k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$23k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in 3 months
22%
Yes
earthquake · Natural Disaster
Megaquake by March 31?
$127k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$127k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
1%
Yes
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$139k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$139k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in 9 months
18%
Yes
46%
Yes
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$28k Vol.
$18k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$28k Vol.$18k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
41%
April 30
Earthquakes · Science
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?
$40k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
$40k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in 5 days
49%
1
