Crimea Predictions & Odds· 105 markets
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
$14k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$14k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in 9 months
22%
Yes
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
$1.7m Vol.
$179k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$1.7m Vol.$179k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
77%
No meeting before 2027
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
$52k Vol.
$28k Liq.
12
Ends in 3 months
$52k Vol.$28k Liq.12Ends in 3 months
4%
Yes
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
$26k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$26k Vol.$22k Liq.Ends in 9 months
25%
Yes
Zelenskyy # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$3k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
$3k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 4 days
40%
60-79
Zelenskyy # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
$578 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$578 Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 8 days
47%
60-79
Zelenskyy # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?
$19k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in about 23 hours
$19k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in about 23 hours
90%
60-79
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?
$57k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$57k Vol.$24k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
63%
April 30
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
$51k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$51k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in 9 months
13%
Yes
Ukraine hits Moscow by...?
$139k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$139k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
12%
April 30
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
$642k Vol.
$27k Liq.
320
Ends in about 7 hours
$642k Vol.$27k Liq.320Ends in about 7 hours
90%
April 30
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
$530k Vol.
$43k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$530k Vol.$43k Liq.Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
5%
Yes
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$100k Vol.
$15k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$15k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?
$362k Vol.
$122k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$362k Vol.$122k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
4%
June 30
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by April 30?
$86k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$86k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
21%
Yes
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...?
$119k Vol.
$44k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$119k Vol.$44k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
71%
December 31
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by April 30?
$0 Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$0 Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
13%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$223k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$1.1m Vol.$223k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes