Foreign Policy Predictions & Odds· 142 markets
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
$873k Vol.
$76k Liq.
Ends in about 16 hours
$873k Vol.$76k Liq.Ends in about 16 hours
28%
December 31
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
$1.6m Vol.
$30k Liq.
155
Ends in 3 months
$1.6m Vol.$30k Liq.155Ends in 3 months
24%
June 30, 2026
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$12k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$12k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
$14.7m Vol.
$536k Liq.
🔥$359k today
71
Ends in 9 months
$14.7m Vol.🔥$359k today$536k Liq.71Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
$29.1m Vol.
$267k Liq.
🔥$217k today
20,363
Ends in about 16 hours
$29.1m Vol.🔥$217k today$267k Liq.20,363Ends in about 16 hours
0%
Yes
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
$10.6m Vol.
$3.9m Liq.
🔥$192k today
Ends in about 16 hours
$10.6m Vol.🔥$192k today$3.9m Liq.Ends in about 16 hours
0%
Yes
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
$31.0m Vol.
$283k Liq.
🔥$89k today
Ends in 9 months
$31.0m Vol.🔥$89k today$283k Liq.Ends in 9 months
9%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
$12.4m Vol.
$449k Liq.
🔥$86k today
5,424
Ends in 9 months
$12.4m Vol.🔥$86k today$449k Liq.5,424Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
$360k Vol.
$216k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$360k Vol.$216k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
58%
Pakistan
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$245k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$1.1m Vol.$245k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?
$197k Vol.
$30k Liq.
6
Ends in about 1 month
$197k Vol.$30k Liq.6Ends in about 1 month
9%
April 10
Will Trump meet with Putin again by...?
$6.8m Vol.
$55k Liq.
251
Ends in about 16 hours
$6.8m Vol.$55k Liq.251Ends in about 16 hours
0%
Yes
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
$1.4m Vol.
$82k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$1.4m Vol.$82k Liq.Ends in 9 months
16%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$3.7m Vol.
$358k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$3.7m Vol.$358k Liq.Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?
$56k Vol.
$27k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$56k Vol.$27k Liq.Ends in 9 months
12%
Yes
Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?
$3.3m Vol.
$146k Liq.
131
Ends in about 16 hours
$3.3m Vol.$146k Liq.131Ends in about 16 hours
2%
Brazil
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31?
$97k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in about 16 hours
$97k Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in about 16 hours
0%
Yes
US strike on Mexico by...?
$3.2m Vol.
$78k Liq.
161
Ends in 9 months
$3.2m Vol.$78k Liq.161Ends in 9 months
24%
December 31
10%
June 30, 2026
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
$178k Vol.
$126k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$178k Vol.$126k Liq.Ends in 9 months
92%
China